Roy Morgan Research
November 14, 2023

Roy Morgan Update November 14, 2023: ALP Support drops to 50%, Consumer Confidence down, Government Confidence slumps & Middle East Conflict

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 9534

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on ALP Support dropping, Consumer Confidence going down, Government Confidence slumping & the Middle East Conflict.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

In a week that saw Prime Minister Albanese in China and the Pacific Islands, the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates, and the conflict in the Middle East heating up as Israel invaded Gaza, Roy Morgan reveals a divided nation.

Of all Australians, 51% say the Israeli army should withdraw their armed forces from Gaza immediately, while 49% say they should not according to a Roy Morgan special Short Message Service Poll of 1,650 Australians.

Support for the Albanese Government dropped 2% to 50%, equal with the Liberal-National Coalition on 50% on a two-party preferred basis.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence plunged 15 points to 66 – the lowest rating so far under the Albanese Government.

A large majority of Australians, 59%, say the country is heading in the wrong direction (up 8% points in a week) and only 25% say the country is heading in the right direction.

Consumer Confidence fell significantly after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates to 4.35% a 12-year high.

Australia New Zealand Bank-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.5 points to 74.3 – its lowest since mid-July.

Inflation Expectations were unchanged at 5.5% this week and in line with the four-week average.

Australians are now expecting annual inflation to be 5.5% over the next two years.

That’s virtually the same as the official rate of 5.4%.

Looking more deeply at Australian views on Gaza, remember 51% said Israel should withdraw their armed forces immediately, 49% said no.

When asked why, those who said ‘Yes’ mentioned the disproportionate impact on civilians and the humanitarian crisis, that over 99% of casualties and deaths have been civilians, that too many innocent are being killed and that it’s time to sit down and talk.

They talked about atrocities being inflicted on civilians and children and that their actions are beyond cruel.

Other proponents of an immediate withdrawal said Israel has occupied Palestine for far too long and Palestine needs to be free; that it is not Israeli land and that they are engaging in a genocide and that ‘war crimes are war crimes on both sides’ and that the initial attack doesn’t justify the current actions of the Israeli Defence Force.

Respondents who said ‘No’ to the withdrawal said the Islamic Resistance Movement has not yet been defeated and still have hundreds of hostages in Gaza – nearly all innocent civilians - for there to be any withdrawal the hostages must first be released. These respondents said Israel has a right to defend themselves after being attacked and that it would not be safe to withdraw immediately.

Others noted that if the Islamic Resistance Movement is not defeated they will reform and attack again in future and that Israel needs to be allowed to ‘finish the job’.

Respondents said that ‘The Islamic Resistance Movement started the war, let Israel finish it’ and that ‘The Islamic Resistance Movement are terrorists’ and that terrorism must be ‘stamped out by eliminating the terrorists’.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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