Roy Morgan Research
February 06, 2024

Roy Morgan Update February 6, 2024: ALP Support up, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 9569
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In this week's Update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

Today we have Australians’ reaction to the proposed Albanese Government’s changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts.

While the initial reaction last week was negative, Australians have reacted positively with the detail now provided and support for the Labor Government has rebounded.

Support for the Labor Government jumped 2.5% to 53% and is now clearly ahead of the Coalition on 47% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

If a Federal Election were held today the Albanese Government would be returned with a comfortable majority.

Treasury analysis released on the Australia Day weekend showed 84% of taxpayers would be better off under the proposed changes – calming the fears of those who had initially thought the Government would not go through with the stage 3 tax cuts.

Sensing the public mood was swinging behind the proposed tax changes the Coalition has today decided to largely support the proposals which give the vast majority of Australians a lower income tax burden.

There was also good news with official quarterly inflation figures coming in lower than expected at 4.1% – and reducing pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates again.

Government Confidence was up 2 points to 78 – a positive move but still very low.

Government Confidence is well below the neutral level of 100 at only 78 because more Australians say the country is heading in the wrong direction (54.5%) and only 32.5% say the country is heading in the right direction.

Consumer Confidence also recovered slightly this week – ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 1.3pts to 83.8 and is now higher than this time a year ago.

However, despite the improvement, Consumer Confidence has now spent 53 weeks, below the level of 85 – the longest time below 85 in the history of the measurement.

Inflation Expectations were down this week by 0.2% to 4.9%. Australians now expect annual Inflation to be 4.9% over the next two years.  This is their lowest since mid-September 2023.

The official ABS inflation figures released last week showing a sharp reduction in inflation at the end of last year.

December quarterly inflation was at 4.1% and the more current monthly figure was at only 3.4% for December 2023.

Turning now to our northern neighbours. Indonesians face a key election next week to elect a new President.

Roy Morgan continuously surveys Indonesians face-to-face in people’s homes around the entire country.

Roy Morgan’s latest research for the month of December 2023 shows a huge boost in support for Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto after he selected current President Jokowi’s son, Gibran, as his running mate in late October.

Support for Prabowo has surged by 13% to 43%, and if this lift in support continues, Prabowo stands a chance of winning a majority in the first round of the elections next week.

Support for previous leading candidate Ganjar Pranowo (who is in President Jokowi’s party the PDI-P), has plunged since Jokowi’s son joined his rival’s ticket – down 8% to 30%.

Support for third candidate, Anies Baswedan, is virtually unchanged at 24%.

Only 7% of electors can’t say who they would support – but if they decide to vote for Prabowo he stands a chance of winning the Presidency next week.

For further details on our research on Indonesia’s Presidential and Legislative elections next year, visit the Roy Morgan website.

Next Wednesday is Valentine’s Day and 3.4 million Australians (one-in-six) plan to celebrate by buying gifts for loved ones – this includes 2.2 million men and 1.2 million women.

The overall number planning to buy Valentine’s Day gifts is down significantly on a year ago as cost-of-living concerns bite – down by 700,000 on 2023.

Average spending of $134 will drive a $465 million boost to retailers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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