Roy Morgan Research
March 26, 2024

Roy Morgan Update March 26, 2024: ALP & L-NP Support at 50%, Consumer Confidence & Mortgage Stress

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 9603
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In this week's Update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Mortgage Stress.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

As we head into the Easter holiday period the latest Roy Morgan survey results show an increase in support for the Coalition this week putting the two major parties in ‘dead-lock.’

Support for the Labor Government is down 1.5% to 50% – even with the Coalition on 50% on a two-party preferred basis.

A look at the States shows the biggest swing to the Coalition (or away from Labor) was in Queensland – up 5.5% points.

This is unsurprising given the poor showing for the ALP at the recent local government and key by-elections. There were massive swings to the Coalition in the seats of Inala (19.5% swing to LNP) and Ipswich West (17.9% swing to LNP).

There were also swings to the Coalition in South Australia (+5%) and Victoria (+4%). The swing in Victoria came after the Victorian ALP Government was revealed to have exaggerated the potential cost blowouts on the Commonwealth Games by billions of dollars as justification for cancelling the Games.

As it was, the total cost to Victorians of the cancelled Commonwealth Games was estimated at $589 million.

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the support of minor parties and independents required for either of the major parties to form minority government. Government Confidence was down 1pt to 80 - well below the neutral level of 100 with only 32% of Australians saying the country is heading in the right direction while 52% say the country is heading in the wrong direction.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 1.4pts to 83.1 this week. Despite the increase, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 60 weeks below the level of 85.

The increase in Consumer Confidence came after the Reserve Bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged last week for the third straight meeting at 4.35%.

Looking back over the last few months, Consumer Confidence has moved in a narrow band of 80-85 over the last 16 weeks since early December.

However, as we must keep reminding ourselves, although the Reserve Bank have not increased interest rates since November, the momentum in mortgage stress and cost of living pressures continues unabated – keeping a lid on Consumer Confidence.

Unfortunately, although the Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged, there was less good news on the Inflation Expectations front.

Inflation Expectations increased 0.3% to 5.1%. Australians now expect annual Inflation to be 5.1% over the next two years.

Similarly to Consumer Confidence, Inflation Expectations have stayed within a narrowband of 4.8% to 5.3% since early December.

The renewed rise in Inflation Expectations this week is unsurprising given the recent increases in the price of petrol.

Average retail petrol prices in Australia have now spent a record 37 weeks (more than eight months) above $1.80 per litre.

Petrol prices dipped in early January to a low of $1.83 per litre, but quickly moved higher since then.

Over the last three weeks petrol prices have been at over $2 per litre – the highest run for six months.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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