Roy Morgan Research
February 04, 2025

Roy Morgan Update February 4, 2025: ALP & L-NP support tied at 50% & Consumer Confidence

Finding No: 9804

In this week's update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update. For the first time this year the ALP has drawn level with the Coalition on two-party preferred terms – and the Roy Morgan weekly indicators are all heading in the right direction.

This week’s Roy Morgan Poll shows the ALP gaining ground on the Coalition with the two parties now locked at 50:50 each on a two-party preferred basis.

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament and ‘too close to call’ with the ALP or Coalition requiring the support of minor parties and independents to form a government.

This week’s boost in support for the ALP came after lower-than-expected inflation estimates, released by the ABS, showed inflation at 2.4% in the 12 months to December 2024, down 0.4% points from the previous quarter.

The closely watched ‘trimmed mean’ measure – which strips out volatile items such as food, energy, and petrol – dropped 0.4% points to 3.2% - its lowest since December 2021.

The falling inflation has raised hopes among many that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates in mid-February.

A cut to interest rates would do two things. It will provide relief to millions of mortgage holders around Australia that have endured 13 interest rate increases since early 2022 – and at the same time provide a clear boost to the Albanese Government’s chances of re-election.

Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) has marginally improved this week, up 1.5 points to 78.5.

However, this is still well below the neutral level of 100.

A clear majority of 54% of Australians still say the country is going in the wrong direction, while only 32.5% say the country is heading in the right direction.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 2.5pts to 88.5 this week – with an increase in buying sentiment and views on the Australian economy’s performance driving the increase.

The lift in confidence drove Consumer Confidence to its highest level since May 2022 – almost three years ago.

Following the better-than-expected inflation estimates released by the ABS this week’s Inflation Expectations dropped, down 0.4% to 4.6%.

Australians are now expecting annual inflation to be 4.6% over each of the next two years.

This is the lowest, Inflation Expectations have been, for two months – since early December after a significant spike in petrol prices over the Christmas-New Year holiday period.

And now a look across the Tasman to the political situation in New Zealand.

In January the latest Roy Morgan Poll shows the main governing National has had a good summer period and boosted its support by 1.5% to 32.5% and is now 4% ahead of the Opposition Labour Party on 28.5%.

This marks two months in a row of increased support for National and follows the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to cut interest rates in late November to 4.25% - the lowest rate for almost two years.

For National’s governing coalition partners, the news was good for New Zealand First which increased 1% to 8.5% - its highest level of support since the 2023 New Zealand Election – although support for ACT dropped 4% to 9%.

Overall, now 50% of New Zealanders support National-led Government including 32.5% for National, 9% for ACT and 8.5% for New Zealand First.

While 46.5% support the Parliamentary Opposition including 28.5% for Labour, 11.5% for the Greens and 6.5% for the Maori Party.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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