Roy Morgan Research
August 04, 2021

ALP (53.5%) increases lead over L-NP (46.5%) – largest ALP lead since the bushfires in early 2020

Topic: Federal Poll, Press Release
Finding No: 8766
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ALP support has increased to 53.5% (up 1% point since mid-July) cf. L-NP on 46.5% (down 1% points) on a two-party preferred basis after Sydney’s month-long lockdown was extended for at least another month and third largest city Brisbane entered its fifth lockdown in late July according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be easily elected with a majority similar to that won by the L-NP at the 2013 Federal Election at which the L-NP won 90 seats with 53.5% of the vote.

Interviewing for the latest Roy Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of July 24/25 & 31/ August 1, 2021 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,709 Australian electors using  a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).

Primary Voting Intention for the L-NP drops to 37% now level with the ALP on 37%

Primary support for the L-NP dropped 2% points since mid-July to 37% and is now dead level with the ALP, unchanged on 37%. Greens support was up 1% point to 12.5%.

Support for One Nation was unchanged at 3% while support for Independents/Others has increased by 1% point to 10.5%.

Voting Intention by State shows ALP ahead in Victoria, NSW, SA & Tasmania

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in Australia’s two largest States of Victoria and NSW and also holding leads in both South Australia and Tasmania. The L-NP leads only in Queensland and Western Australia.

The ALP has its largest lead in Victoria on 59.5% (up 3% points since mid-July) compared to the L-NP on 40.5% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Victoria recently emerged from a two-week lockdown in late July, its fifth lockdown of the pandemic so far.

This result represents a swing of 6.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has also built on its narrow two-party preferred lead in NSW with the ALP on 51% (up 0.5% points since mid-July) cf. L-NP on 49% (down 0.5% points) which represents a swing of 2.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The L-NP has its strongest result In Queensland with the LNP on 52% (up 0.5% points since mid-July) cf. ALP 48% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. However, despite the LNP’s lead this represents a substantial swing of 6.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The L-NP has also regained the lead in Western Australia with the L-NP on 51.5% (up 4% points since mid-June) cf. ALP on 48.5% (down 4% points). Despite the L-NP regaining the advantage in Western Australia this still represents a swing of 4.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP holds a two-party preferred lead in the smaller States with the ALP 55.5% (up 4.5% points since mid-July) cf. L-NP 44.5% (down 4.5% points) in South Australia. This represents a swing of 4.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. In Tasmania the ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46% - a swing of 2% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence is in negative territory at 96 in early August

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 7pts to 96 since mid-July. Now 40% of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, down 3.5% points since mid-July, while 44% say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, up 3.5% points.

The latest Government Confidence Ratings by State paint a contrasting picture Government Confidence well below the neutral level of 100 in both NSW and Victoria but in positive territory above 100 in all four other States.

Government Confidence in New South Wales is lower than anywhere else at only 87 in early August as the State battles the largest outbreak of COVID-19 since Victoria’s second wave during 2020. The unprecedented fifth lockdown of Victoria during mid-late July also had an impact with Government Confidence in Victoria only slightly better at 87.5.

In contrast, Western Australia has the highest Government Confidence Rating of 116.5 and has been the only mainland State without a lockdown during the second half of July. Just behind are South Australia with a Government Confidence Rating of 111.5 and Tasmania on 107.5.

Queensland also has a positive Government Confidence Rating of 104.5 in early August with most interviewing completed before the latest lockdown was implemented in South-East Queensland on the last day of July.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says the ALP has increased its lead over the L-NP to an election-winning 53.5% cf. 46.5% as the lockdown in NSW was extended and South-East Queensland, Victoria and South Australia all experienced lockdowns in late July:

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention is not good news for the Federal Government with the ALP (53.5%) increasing its two party-preferred lead over the L-NP (46.5%) to its widest since February 2020 when Australia was caught in the midst of a bushfire crisis.

“The Federal Government is copping the blame for the latest series of lockdowns from many State Premiers who blame hotel quarantine failures on the lack of national quarantine facilities and say the Morrison Government has ‘botched’ the vaccine rollout around Australia.

“As of this week the latest Health Department figures show 12.8 million vaccine doses have been administered to 42% of Australians aged 16+. A closer look at the vaccination data shows 80% of Australians aged 70+ and 67% of those aged 50+ have had at least one vaccine dose while 44% of people aged 70+ and 28% of those aged 50+ are fully vaccinated.

“However, the key target is the full vaccination of Australians aged 16+. Only 20% of people aged 16+ are now fully vaccinated which is well short of the 70% and 80% targets outlined after last week’s meeting of National Cabinet.

“To reach the threshold of 70% fully vaccinated approximately 29 million vaccine doses need to be administered while to reach 80% that number rises to 33 million doses. Australia is still over 20 million vaccine doses short of this mark and at the rate of 1 million vaccine doses a week will reach this level in late December.

“The forecast for the vaccine rollout over the next five months suggest that the current lockdowns in Greater Sydney and South-East Queensland will not be the last and there are likely to be several more lockdowns around Australia between now and the end of the year – with the blame set to fall on the Federal Government each time this happens.

“The impact of lockdowns on Federal Government support is most apparent in Victoria which is the ALP’s strongest State and has spent more time in lockdown than any other State. The ALP has a massive lead over the L-NP in Victoria with ALP two-party preferred support of 59.5% compared to the L-NP on 40.5%.

“The ALP also leads in New South Wales (currently in lockdown), South Australia (which just emerged from a lockdown in late July) and Tasmania (which is disproportionately hurt by State border closures because of its reliance on the tourism industry). Interestingly, all three of these States currently have Liberal-led State Governments.

“The L-NP continues to hold two-party preferred leads in both Queensland and Western Australia although on present trends these strongholds will not be enough to return the L-NP Government to a fourth term in office.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,709 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of July 24/25 & 31/ August 1, 2021. A higher than usual 7.5% of electors (down 1% point from mid-July) can’t say who they support.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:+61 3 9224 5213+61 411 129 094
Michele Levine:+61 3 9224 5215+61 411 129 093

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–August 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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