September 01, 2021

ALP (54.5%) increases lead over L-NP (45.5%) for third straight interviewing period

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 8782
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ALP support has increased to 54.5% (up 0.5% points since mid-August) cf. L-NP on 45.5% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This was the third straight increase in support for the ALP and they are now up 4% points since having a narrow lead in mid-June (ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%) according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.
This is the largest two-party preferred lead for the ALP since the national bushfires crisis of last year when the ALP enjoyed a maximum lead of 10% points on a two-party preferred basis in early February 2020 (ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%).
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be easily elected with the largest share of the vote since the 1977 Federal Election won by Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser with 54.6% of the vote.
Interviewing for the latest Roy Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of August 21/22 & 28/29, 2021 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,735 Australian electors using a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).
Primary Voting Intention has the ALP on 38.5% now ahead of the L-NP on 37.5%
Primary support for the ALP was up 1% point to 38.5% since mid-August and has now moved ahead of the L-NP which is unchanged on 37.5%. ALP support increased at the expense of the Greens who were down 1% point to 11.5%.
Support for One Nation was down 0.5% points to 3% while support for Independents/Others was up by 0.5% points to 9.5%.
Voting Intention by State shows ALP leading in Victoria, NSW, WA, SA & Tasmania
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in Australia’s two largest States of Victoria and NSW and also holding leads in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. The LNP leads only in Queensland.
The ALP leads strongly in Victoria on 59.5% (down 0.5% points since mid-August) compared to the L-NP on 40.5% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Victoria has now been in its sixth lockdown for nearly a month.
This result represents a swing of 6.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

Importantly, the ALP has increased its two-party preferred lead in NSW with the ALP on 53% (up 1% point since mid-August) cf. L-NP on 47% (down 1% point) which represents a swing of 4.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The longer the current two-month lockdown in New South Wales continues the higher the ALP’s two-party preferred vote goes.

The L-NP has its strongest result in Queensland with the LNP on 53.5% (up 1.5% points since mid-August) cf. ALP 46.5% (down 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. However, despite the LNP’s lead this represents a substantial swing of 4.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP maintains a narrow lead in Western Australia with the ALP on 51% (down 3.5% points since mid-August) cf. L-NP on 49% (up 3.5% points). This results represents a large swing of 6.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP holds large two-party preferred leads in the smaller States with the ALP 57.5% (up 3% points since mid-August) cf. L-NP 42.5% (down 3% points) in South Australia. This represents a swing of 6.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP’s strongest performance is in Tasmania with the ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5% - a swing of 7.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence falls further into negative territory at 93.5

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen further to 93.5 in late August, down 3.5pts since mid-August. Now 40% of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, down 1% point since mid-August, while 46.5%, up 2.5% points, say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

There is a wide divergence between the States with Government Confidence well below 100 in the lockdown States of NSW and Victoria and the tourism-dependent Tasmania but in positive territory above 100 in the three other States.

Government Confidence in both NSW and Victoria is at only 86 in late August with both States in extended lockdowns that are set to continue throughout the month of September. Despite the lockdowns the COVID-19 outbreaks in both States are continuing to grow. However, Government Confidence is lowest of all in tourism-dependent Tasmania at only 77.5 in late August.

In contrast, Western Australia is in a far more positive frame of mind and has the highest Government Confidence Rating of 117. Western Australia has not been in lockdown since early July and was this week was confirmed as the host of the AFL Grand Final for the first time.

Government Confidence is marginally in positive territory in both Queensland at 104 and South Australia at 102.5. Both States experienced short, sharp and effective lockdowns in late July and early August but have been largely free of COVID-19 over the last few weeks.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says the ALP has strengthened its lead over the L-NP to an election-winning 54.5% cf. 45.5% as the lockdowns in NSW and Victoria hand the ALP big two-party preferred leads in both States:

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP increasing its lead for the third straight survey on a two-party preferred basis. The ALP on 54.5% (up 0.5% points since mid-August) is now a large 9% points ahead of the L-NP on 45.5% (down 0.5% points).

“This is the largest two-party preferred lead for the ALP since early February 2020 during the national bushfires crisis when the ALP briefly enjoyed a 10% point lead: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%. The ALP has steadily built its lead since mid-June when the two parties were in a tight race with the ALP 50.5% narrowly ahead of the L-NP 49.5%.

“Of course a lot has changed since mid-June when the current outbreak of the Delta strain of COVID-19 began when a Bondi limousine driver tested positive on June 16. Just over a week later Greater Sydney went into a lockdown that continues to this day and ever since that point support for the Morrison Government has consistently dropped.

“The primary responsibility for the current lockdowns of over 15 million Australians in NSW, Victoria and the ACT has been placed at the feet of the Federal Government for a slow vaccine roll-out around the country. The ALP enjoys a huge advantage in Victoria with the ALP on 59.5% cf L-NP 40.5% on a two-party preferred basis and the ALP also leads in NSW: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.

“As of this week the latest Health Department figures show over 19.3 million vaccine doses have been administered to 59% of Australians aged 16+. A closer look at the vaccination data shows 63% of Australians aged 70+ and 52% of those aged 50+ are now fully vaccinated.

“However, the key target is the full vaccination of Australians aged 16+. Only 35% of people aged 16+ are now fully vaccinated which is well short of the 70% and 80% targets outlined as the key to ending restrictions and lockdowns.

“To reach the threshold of 80% fully vaccinated approximately 33 million vaccine doses need to be administered. Australia is still around 14 million vaccine doses short of this mark and at the rate of 1 million vaccine doses a week will reach this level in early December.

“One outcome of the outbreaks in NSW, Victoria and the ACT is that people in these locations are now racing to get vaccinated and will reach the vaccination targets ahead of other States. This staged re-opening is set to create further headaches for the Federal Government towards the end of the year as although some State borders are likely to open others are likely to remain closed.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?" and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,735 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of August 21/22 & 28/29, 2021. A higher than usual 8% of electors (up 0.5% points from mid-August) can’t say who they support.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:+61 3 9224 5213+61 411 129 094
Michele Levine:+61 3 9224 5215+61 411 129 093

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–August 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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