Roy Morgan Research
October 21, 2020

ALP Government leads with a slim majority in Queensland; small majority of Queenslanders don’t want NSW border open now

Topic: Press Release, State Poll
Finding No: 8548
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The latest Roy Morgan Queensland State Poll shows the ALP Government leads with a slim majority in Queensland. On a two-party preferred basis support for the ALP is at 51% (down 0.3% since the 2017 Election) compared to the LNP on 49% (up 0.3%).

Primary support for the ALP is up 0.6% since the 2017 Election to 36% and just in front of the LNP on 35% (up 1.3% since the 2017 Election).

The major parties have drawn support from Pauline Hanson's One Nation on 12%, down 1.7% since the last election. The Greens are unchanged on 10% and Katter's Australian Party is unchanged on 2.5%.

Support for Independents/Others is down 0.2% to 4.5%. Within that grouping support for Clive Palmer's United Australia Party is negligible measuring under 0.5%.

Women favour the ALP while men favour the LNP on a two-party preferred basis

The key to the ALP’s lead is its support among women. Women favour the ALP 53.5% cf. LNP 46.5% on a two-party preferred basis while men more narrowly favour the LNP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%.

Importantly the ALP holds narrow two-party preferred leads in both Brisbane: ALP 50.5% cf. LNP 49.5% and in Regional Areas of Queensland: ALP 51.5% cf. LNP 48.5%.

Of the ALP’s ten most marginal electorates a majority of seven – Townsville (+0.4%), Gaven (+0.7%), Mundingburra (+1.1%), Barron River (+1.9%), Maryborough (+2.5% cf. One Nation), Keppel (+3.1% cf. One Nation) and Cairns (+3.4%) – are in regional Queensland.

Majority of 53% of Queensland electors don’t want the NSW border opened

A majority of 53% of Queensland electors say they don’t want the NSW border opened now compared to 47% that do want the border opened now.

A narrow majority of 51% of men do want the NSW border open now compared to only 43% of women.

Slim majorities of Queenslanders aged 50-64 (51%) and 65+ (52%) want the NSW border opened now while only 43% of 35-49yr old’s and just 39% of people aged under 35 want the border open now.

The issue is highly partisan with majorities of LNP supporters (72%), One Nation supporters (63%) and a small majority of Katter’s Australian Party supporters (52%) wanting the NSW border open now.

However, on the other side, large majorities of both ALP supporters (77%) and an even larger majority of Greens supporters (81%) do not want the NSW border open now.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:

“The ALP leads with a slim majority ahead of next week’s Queensland Election but the margin is tight with the ALP 51% vs. LNP 49% on a two-party preferred basis.

“Both major parties have increased their primary vote support from three years ago at the expense of One Nation (12%, down 1.7% since 2017) although the right-wing party is still attracting substantial support and is expected to earn more votes than the Greens (10%, unchanged).

“The biggest story of 2020 has been the COVID-19 pandemic and on this front Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Queensland has comprehensively outperformed its larger southern counterparts. Only six Queenslanders have lost their lives due to contracting COVID-19 and the State has largely been free of the virus for many months with only a few outbreaks since re-opening in late May.

“Queensland’s signature policy to keep COVID-19 out of the local community has been a hard border and the border to NSW, and Victoria, has now been closed for months.

“A majority of 53% of Queenslanders are not ready to open the border with New South Wales and only 47% want the border open now suggesting keeping the border closed is an election winner for Palaszczuk. This is particularly true when one considers the strong support for the policy from ALP supporters – 77% don’t want the NSW border open now.

“In contrast, supporters of the LNP and other right-wing parties are in favour of re-opening the NSW border now. Nearly three-quarters of LNP supporters (72%) and almost two-thirds of One Nation supporters (63%) supporters and a slim majority of 52% of Katter’s Australian Party supporters want the NSW border open now.

“These results show that Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s effective leadership by closing the border in response to the COVID-19 crisis is the biggest factor working for the re-election of the ALP Government. The ALP has won 10/11 Queensland State Elections since 1989.”

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with a Queensland-wide cross-section of 1,187 Queensland electors aged 18+ conducted on Monday October 12 – Thursday October 15, 2020.

Question 1:

In the Queensland State Election being held this month - which party will receive your first preference?"

Queensland Primary Voting Intention. By Gender & Region

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Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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