Roy Morgan Research
August 04, 2020

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips 0.4 pts to 88.6 before Melbourne enters Stage 4 restrictions on Sunday night

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8485
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slipped 0.4pts to 88.6 on the weekend before Melbourne entered Stage 4 restrictions on Sunday. Unsurprisingly Consumer Confidence is lowest in Melbourne at 85.2, but only slightly higher in Sydney at 86.2. Only in Perth is Consumer Confidence in positive territory above 100 at 100.4 while marginally above the national average in both Adelaide (94.0) and Brisbane (90.1).

Overall Consumer Confidence is now 27.2pts lower than a year ago on the comparable weekend of August 3/4, 2019 (115.8) and 5.8pts below the 2020 weekly average of 94.4. Driving the fall this week were declines in confidence about the performance of the Australian economy over both the next year and the next five years.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 23% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and 34% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • In addition 34% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 22% (up 1ppt) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator for over three months since April 25/26, 2020).

Current economic conditions

  • However just 6% (down 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months while a majority of 52% (up 2ppts), expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator for over three months since April 18/19, 2020).

Future financial conditions

  • In the longer term, only 15% (down 4ppts) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years compared to 24% (up 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly four months since April 4/5, 2020).

Time to buy a major household item

  • However, an increasing number of Australians, 33% (up 2ppts), say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (down 3ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

"Confidence fell again last week, though only modestly. This survey does not capture the effect of the extended Melbourne lockdown, as the announcement came late in the weekend. Despite the decline seen since the onset of the second wave in Victoria, the severity of the fall has been less than in March (at least so far), suggesting Australians have become somewhat accustomed to the ‘new normal’. Fiscal support is also critical, with sentiment toward personal financial conditions holding up much better than expectations about the economy as a whole. The plan to reduce this support may test this relative resilience."

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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