April 20, 2022

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.2 points to 96.8 as petrol prices continue to decrease – now down 46 cents in four weeks

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8960
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased by 2.2pts to 96.8 this week after average petrol prices in Australia dropped by another 8 cents per litre last week and are now down over 46 cents per litre to $1.66 per litre last week since peaking in mid-March at $2.13 per litre.
Consumer Confidence has now increased for three straight weeks, however it is still a significant 17.2pts below the same week a year ago, April 17/18, 2021 (114.0) and is now just below the 2022 weekly average of 98.2. Consumer Confidence was up in most States this week including New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia.

Current financial conditions

  • Now just 25% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 36% (unchanged), that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to just 22% (down 2ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 13% (unchanged), of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 25% (down 3ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • In the longer term, just 17% (up 1ppt), of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 17% (down 2ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Buying intentions have improved slightly from a week ago with 33% (up 1ppt) of Australians, saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household while 38% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

Block Quote

Consumer confidence increased by 2.3% last week, rising to its highest since 6 March. It is interesting to note that, in a mirror image, household inflation expectations at 5.3% were at their lowest level since 6 March, as petrol prices declined for a fourth straight week. The significant negative correlation between consumer confidence and inflation expectations at the current juncture likely reflects the perceived impact of higher prices on living standards when wages growth remains weak. Despite the third gain in a row, confidence remains below its neutral level of 100. Oil prices have risen more than 10% from the low at the beginning of last week, so it’s not clear if there is much more room for confidence to be boosted by lower petrol prices (though there may be some lagged impact from the lower excise tax still to flow through).”

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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