September 21, 2021

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 103.3 before Victorian re-opening plan outlined on Sunday

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 8810
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 103.3 (up 0.2pts) in mid-September. Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews outlined the State’s re-opening plan on Sunday afternoon but the full impact on confidence won’t be felt until next weekend. Consumer Confidence remains well below the 2021 weekly average of 108.6 but is now 9.8 points higher than the same week a year ago, September 19/20, 2020 (93.5).

Consumer Confidence this week was down slightly in both NSW and Victoria, although still in positive territory in both States. Consumer Confidence increased in both Queensland and South Australia and was virtually unchanged, and higher than anywhere else, in Western Australia at well over 110.

Driving this week’s increase was improving confidence about the year ahead with more people expecting to be better off financially this time next year and positive views about the Australian economy’s performance over the next year and next five years improving on a week ago.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 26% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year while 30% (up 2ppts), say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • An increasing plurality of 38% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to only 13% (down 1ppt) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Current economic conditions

  • An unchanged 14% of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months while 24% (down 2ppts), expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • In the longer term, just over a fifth of Australians, 22% (up 3ppts), are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 18% (up 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Buying intentions weakened slightly this week with 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians, saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 32% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

"Consumer confidence barely moved last week, rising just 0.2%. Last week’s labour market data revealed some softness in the economy with employment falling by 146k in August due to the prolonged lockdowns. This might have dampened sentiment, which fell 4.9% in NSW and 1.1% in Victoria. But confidence rose 7.3% in Queensland and 6.7% in South Australia, making up for the fall. Falling COVID case numbers in NSW plus Victoria’s plan for opening may boost confidence over the coming week. A notable development was the jump in inflation expectations to 4.7% for a second time this month. This could be due to the increase in retail petrol prices in the past two weeks."

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

Related Findings

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