August 28, 2020

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 4.1pts to 100.2 in August

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8506
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Consumer confidence was down 4.1pts to 100.2 in August, well under its historical average of around 120, and around the 2009 average.

Consumer confidence was down 4.1pts to 100.2 in August, well under its historical average of around 120, and around the 2009 average.

  • The net proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item gave up another 3 points, falling to a recessionary -3%.
  • Surveying was done throughout the month so will be a roughly 50:50 split before and after the news that COVID-19 was back in the community.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell 4 points in August. It is sitting around 2009 levels, which was not a great year for consumers or retailers.Turning to the detail:

  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation eased 1 point to +1. The wage subsidy scheme and lower interest rates will have certainly helped, but this is nonetheless consistent with cautious spending. 
  • A net 27% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, down another 4 points. 
  • A net 3% think it is a bad time to buy a major household item, down 3 points, consistent with our view that the vigorous post-lockdown bounce in retail spending has probably largely done its dash. 
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 7 points and remains very low at -41%. The five-year outlook fell 5 points to +17%. 
  • Despite the gloom, house price inflation expectations lifted 0.8%pts to 2.8%, led by the North Island both in terms of the lift, and in terms of levels. They are weakest in Canterbury, and strongest in the North Island outside of Wellington and Auckland. 
  • General inflation expectations eased from 3.3% to 3.2%.

Reality bites. We’re battling COVID-19 once more, and the Auckland hospitality and retail sectors are the cannon fodder. Job insecurity will have increased for many as a result of the second lockdown. But even once that is dealt with, huge uncertainty about the future remains, with the income hit from the loss of international tourists still largely to come, given the seasonality of it. 

Willingness to buy a major household item is the best spending indicator in the survey. It is stuck at the levels prevailing in the last recession. That, plus the return of COVID, cements our view that the post-lockdown bounce in spending was only ever going to be temporary. New Zealand’s income is falling, so spending growth should fall too, albeit buffered by fiscal policy.

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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