November 24, 2020

L-NP (50.5%) has narrow lead over ALP (49.5%) in November as Australia gets set for a ‘COVID-normal’ Christmas

Topic: Federal Poll, Press Release
Finding No: 8581
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In November, support for the L-NP Federal Government is unchanged since October with a narrow lead of 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.

If a Federal Election were held now it would be too close to call with the real possibility Australia would have a hung Parliament for the first time in nearly a decade.

Interviewing for the latest Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of November 14/15 & 21/22, 2020 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,824 Australian electors using  a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).

On a State-by-State basis the L-NP leads most strongly in Queensland (LNP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%) and New South Wales (L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%) and has narrow leads in Tasmania (L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%) and Western Australia (L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%).

However, the ALP leads comfortably in both Victoria (ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%) and South Australia (ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%).

Primary Voting Intention little changed from a month ago

Primary support for the L-NP is now at 42% (down 0.5% since October) compared to the ALP on 34% (unchanged).

Greens support is unchanged on 12.0% while support for One Nation is unchanged on 4%. Support for Independents/Others is up 0.5% to 8%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence has increased as Victoria emerged from lockdown

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 7.5pts from a month ago to 124.5. Now 55% (up 4% since October) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while only 30.5% (down 3.5%) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

There is a large jump of 24pts to 126 in Victoria, as the State finally emerged from a near four-month lockdown, and a 19.5pts increase to 146 in Western Australia – the highest of any State in Australia, and a significant increase of 14pts to 113 in Tasmania.

Other States were down slightly from a month ago with Queensland on 125.5 (down 1pt), New South Wales on 119.5 (down 2pts) and South Australia on 118 (down 2.5pts).

A renewed outbreakof COVID-19 in South Australia last week has provided a slight hit to confidence while the decision by New South Wales to keep their borders to South Australia open may have caused a slight decline in Government Confidence in that State.

Government Confidence in Queensland remains higher than the national average although below the level of mid-October as the State was set to hold the AFL Grand Final.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says the L-NP Government continues to hold a narrow advantage over the ALP on a two-party preferred basis heading towards a ‘COVID-normal’ Christmas next month:

“Support for the L-NP Federal Government is unchanged at 50.5% on a two-party preferred basis and now just ahead of the ALP (49.5%) in November. If an election were held now it would be too close to call and a real possibility of a hung Parliament  - the first since 2010-2013.

“Although Australia has dealt successfully with the COVID-19 pandemic so far and the prospects of a vaccine being widely available next year are increasing, the Federal Government is not alone in winning plaudits for the handling of the virus.

“State and Territory Leaders have been rewarded for their handling of COVID-19 this year with Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk re-elected in late October after closing Queensland’s borders and keeping the the community safe from COVID-19.

“Also benefiting have been ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr and Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner who both cruised to re-election victories in the last few months. There hasn’t been a single COVID-19 fatality all year in the Northern Territory.

“Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has also been praised by many for the long lockdown imposed on Victoria to squash the second wave of the virus in his State. The latest Roy Morgan Victorian Poll shows the Victorian ALP Government on 58.5% on a two-party preferred basis – well ahead of the Victorian L-NP on only 41.5%.

“During the last few months it has often seemed State and Territory leaders are setting the national conversation on COVID-19 rather than the Federal Government as they impose State-specific lockdowns and open and close Australia’s internal State borders.

“With Roy Morgan’s real unemployment at 12.8% in October (1.81 million Australians) and under-employment at 9.4% (1.34 million) there are now almost 1 million more Australians either unemployed or under-employed than there were in early March prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“For the Federal Government to regain the initiative it is vital they set the agenda for 2021 and provide new programs that will encourage employers to expand their businesses and hire new staff and re-invigorate an Australian economy emerging from it’s first recession in three decades.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,824 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of November 14/15 & 21/22, 2020. A higher than usual 7% of electors (up 0.5% from October) can’t say who they support.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:+61 3 9224 5213+61 411 129 094
Michele Levine:+61 3 9224 5215+61 411 129 093

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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