Roy Morgan Update April 3, 2024: ALP Support up, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations

In this week's Update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

During the Easter break the Roy Morgan Poll recorded a boost in support for the Labor Government, up 1% to 51% and ahead of the Coalition on 49% on a two-party preferred basis.

Although Labor increased its lead on a two-party preferred basis, this was due to the increasing strength in the support for the Greens – and their preference flow to Labor.

Support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 15.5% - the equal highest support for the party since the last election.

The increased support for the Greens comes as the party continues to move away from focusing on environmental issues and has been very vocal in talking about housing issues impacting many Australians.

Support for the Greens is highest in Victoria (17%), Queensland (18.5%), Western Australia (15%) and Tasmania (20.5%). The Greens recorded their lowest level of support in New South Wales at only 10.5%.

The problems for the Government are illustrated when looking at the primary vote.

Support for the ALP was actually down this week by 1.5% to only 30%, but support for the Coalition was also down by 0.5% to 37.5%. There were a further 17% supporting Independents and other minor parties, up 0.5% from last week.

The overall picture on primary vote is that electors continue to move away from the major parties to the Greens, independents and other minor parties.

The rise in support for the Greens, other minor parties and independents means if an election were held now the Albanese Government would be re-elected but relying on the support of the Greens and Teal Independents to form Government.

The other key indicators were not so good for the Albanese Government this week.

Government Confidence was down 4.5pts to 75.5 - well below the neutral level of 100 and the lowest rating since November 2023 – just after the last interest rate increase.

Now only 30% of Australians say the country is heading in the right direction while 54.5% say the country is heading in the wrong direction.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 82.8 this week (down 0.3 points). Consumer Confidence has spent a record 61 weeks below the level of 85.

Looking back over the last few months, Consumer Confidence has now moved in a narrow band of 80-85 over the last 17 weeks since early December.

However, as we must keep reminding ourselves, although the Reserve Bank have not increased interest rates since November, the momentum in mortgage stress and cost of living pressures continues unabated – keeping a lid on Consumer Confidence.

Inflation Expectations increased again for a second straight week, up 0.1% to 5.2%. Australians now expect annual Inflation to be 5.2% over the next two years.

Like Consumer Confidence, Inflation Expectations have stayed within a narrowband of 4.8% to 5.3% since early December.

This is the first time this year Inflation Expectations have increased for two weeks in a row.

The renewed rise in Inflation Expectations this week is unsurprising given the recent high price of petrol.

Average retail petrol prices in Australia have now spent a record 38 weeks (more than eight months) above $1.80 per litre.

More recently, since late January average retail petrol prices have averaged $1.98 per litre over the last nine weeks.