Roy Morgan Update August 5, 2025: Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence and New Zealand Voting Intention

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence and New Zealand Voting Intention.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

And today we have some good news – after more than three years languishing at a low level, Consumer Confidence has finally broken out of a long slump.

Additionally, Business Confidence remains in positive territory above 100, however there is concern on one front – Inflation Expectations have increased to their highest for six months.

But first, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence reading for the first week of August shows good news with the index increasing 3.9 points to 90.6.

Although this is still a low reading, it is the first time the index has broken above the mark of 90 since late May 2022 – the week the Albanese Government was first elected.

This ends a record breaking slump of over three years during which the index averaged only 82.1.

The positive result comes after the ABS released June quarterly inflation figures last week showing annual inflation dipping to only 2.1% - its lowest for four years since March 2021 – during the middle of the pandemic.

The drop in official inflation means the Reserve Bank is almost certain to cut interest rates next week.

The increase to Consumer Confidence was widespread with the index increasing in all States and across all housing subgroups – Renters, Home Owners & People with a Mortgage.

The biggest driver of the increase in Consumer Confidence was more positive views of personal financial situations – but its important to note all five index questions improved this week.

However, there is a note of caution to consider.

This week ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased 0.3% to 5.2% - its highest level for six months since January 2025.

This means Australians now expect inflation of 5.2% over each of the next two years.

Although official inflation figures are at four-year lows, Australians are clearly still concerned inflation could increase over the next two years in an increasingly uncertain international economic environment.

And now, how businesses are feeling. Australian Business Confidence for the month of July increased by 0.6 points to 103.0 – just above the neutral level of 100.

The modest increase to Business Confidence in July came despite the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in early July.

This Roy Morgan Business Confidence series is based on interviews with 1,200 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

Driving Business Confidence higher in July was more confidence from businesses about their own situation.

Now 32.2% of businesses say they are ‘better off financially’ than a year ago – an increase of 5.8% points on a month ago –

40.9% of businesses say they expect to be ‘better off financially’ this time next year, up 1.3% points.

In addition, a majority of 62% of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year while only 35.9% expect ‘bad times’.

Over the two months of June & July, the most confident industries were:

Accommodation & Food Services which recorded a Business Confidence of 123.1 and Electricity, gas, water & waste services on 121.1.

At the other end of the scale, we have the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry with Business Confidence of only 71.9 and Transport, Postal & Warehousing on 81.1 – both well below any other industries.

And now a look across the Tasman to the political situation in New Zealand.

In July the Roy Morgan Poll shows the main governing party National on 31% level with the Opposition Labour Party on 31%.

Mirroring the situation in Australia, both major parties are struggling to attract widespread support – this is the tenth straight month both parties have less than a third of total support.

Support for National’s governing partner NZ First increased 1.5% to 9.5% - its highest support since the NZ Election.