Roy Morgan Update July 1, 2025: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence & Smoking Rates in Australia

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence & Smoking Rates in Australia.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan update.

The latest Roy Morgan survey on voting intention – conducted after the US bombing of the Iranian nuclear sites – shows the ALP maintaining a commanding lead on 57.5% ahead of the Coalition on only 42.5% on a two-party preferred basis – virtually unchanged from the first three weeks of June.

The Labor primary vote was down slightly by 1% to 36.5% still well ahead of the Coalition on 30.5%, down 0.5%.

Support for the Greens was unchanged on 12%. Support for One Nation increased 2% to 8.5%, while support for Independents and Other Parties was down 1% to 12.5%.

However, Roy Morgan Government Confidence dropped 9 points this week to 92.5 points. Once again, more Australians say the country is ‘going in the ‘wrong direction’ (46%) than ‘right direction’ (38.5%).

Consumer confidence edged up again this week. The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence based on interviews conducted throughout last week, increased 0.5 points to 87.2 – a second straight weekly increase.

This small increase was driven by another increase in ‘net buying intentions’ as the ‘End of Year Sales’ continued – up 4% points.

Although still low, net buying intentions are now at their highest for well over three years since March 2022.

There was another factor that drove the increase in Consumer Confidence – the increased confidence of People Paying Off Their Home – those with a mortgage.

This group’s Consumer Confidence increased 5.5 points to 90.1 and now clearly higher than both People who Own Their Home Outright and Renters.

This increase is likely related to the widespread expectations that the Reserve Bank is set to deliver another interest rate cut next week – perhaps as large as 50 basis points.

There was also relatively good news on the inflation front this week before next week’s Reserve Bank meeting with Inflation expectations unchanged at 4.7%.

Australians now expect inflation of 4.7% over each of the next two years – a figure just below the long-term average of 4.8% for this measure over the last 15 years.

And now a look across the Tasman to the political situation in New Zealand.

In June the Roy Morgan Poll shows the main governing party National on 32% ahead of the Opposition Labour Party on 28.5% - both virtually unchanged on a month ago.

Mirroring the situation in Australia, both major parties are struggling to attract widespread support – this is the ninth straight month both parties have less than a third of total support.

There was movement in support for National’s governing partner NZ First which increased 1.5% to 8% while ACT was virtually unchanged at 11.5%.

The increase in support for NZ First drove a better result for the National-led Government, up 1.5% to 51.5% - This is the first time this year that a majority of New Zealanders have supported the Government.

While 44.5% support the Parliamentary Opposition including 28.5% for Labour, 11% for the Greens and 5% for the Maori Party. This is the lowest level of support for the Greens since the New Zealand Election in late 2023.

And finally today a look at smoking and vaping rates of Australians – and especially younger Australians.

Roy Morgan has measured Australian smoking incidence for decades – Factory-Made Cigarettes, Roll-Your-Own Cigarettes and more recently vaping.

And the latest results show 28% of young Australians aged 18-24 smoke or vape.

In July last year new legislation was introduced by the Albanese Government prohibiting the importation, domestic manufacture, supply, commercial possession and advertisement of disposable single use and non-therapeutic vapes in Australia.

Unfortunately, the incidence of 18-24yr olds smoking (or vaping) has increased to 28% (700,000 people) – an increase of 2.9% points (+80,000) since September 2024 – when smoking incidence was at a low point.

This is the highest rate of smoking (or vaping) among any age group.

This increase is driven by increased rates of vaping (up 1.5% points), smoking Factory-Made Cigarettes (FMCs) – up 2.9% points, and Roll-Your-Own (RYO Cigarettes) – up 0.5% points.