Roy Morgan Update July 29, 2025: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence, Inflation Expectations

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence, Inflation Expectations

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

Inflation Expectations are up, Consumer Confidence remains constrained, but the re-elected Albanese Government is riding high.

The new Federal Parliament sat for the first time last week and Labor’s record-breaking majority – holding 94 seats out of 150 in the House of Representatives – was on full display with the party holding more than twice as many seats as the L-NP Coalition with only 43.

This Roy Morgan Poll was conducted throughout the month of July with an Australia-wide cross-section of 5,159 electors.

Two-party preferred support for the ALP was at 57% well ahead of the Coalition on only 43% - virtually unchanged from the last Roy Morgan Poll released at the end of June.

In the month of July primary support for the ALP was at 36.5% and clearly ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 31%.

Support for the Greens was 12%, One Nation was at 7% and support for Independents/ Other Parties was at 13.5%.

The first bill to be introduced to the new Parliament was the bill to reduce student debt by 20% - popular with many younger Australians carrying large debts from their studies.

The Coalition opposed this measure before the election but dropped its opposition.

Analysis of the Roy Morgan primary voting intention data by age shows why the Coalition had to drop their opposition – they are struggling to connect with young people.

Primary support for the Coalition is only 18% for 18-24 year olds – well behind the ALP on 33% and the Greens on 27.5%.

And among those aged 25-34 Coalition support is only 20%, behind the ALP on 32% and the Greens on 23.5%.

Coalition support picks up among 35-49 year olds at 25.5%, and 50-64 year olds (at 31%) and is higher than any other party among those aged 65+ (at 40%).

The latest Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) shows not everything is going well for the Government and was down slightly in July, by 2 points to 90.5.

46.5% of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to 37% that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The ALP continues to lead the Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis in all six States.

 The ALP’s largest two-party preferred leads are in South Australia (ALP: 62% cf. L-NP 38%) and Tasmania (ALP: 61% cf. L-NP 39%).

At the recent Federal Election the ALP won 11/15 seats in South Australia and Tasmania, the L-NP coalition won 2/15 seats and Independent candidates won 2/15 seats.

The ALP holds large two-party preferred leads amongst both men and women following the party’s win at the Federal Election.

For women the ALP is on 59.5% compared to the Coalition on 40.5%. For men the ALP is on 54.5% and the Coalition on 45.5%.

Looking at the key weekly indicators shows Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged for a third straight week at 86.7.

This week ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased 0.2% to 4.9% - reversing last week’s fall.

This means Australians now expect inflation of 4.9% over each of the next two years.

Inflation Expectations are now just above the average of the last 15 years of 4.8%.

And now to the electricity market.

New data from Roy Morgan shows that improvements in the Net Promoter Scores® of electricity providers this year has correlated with a clear drop in switching behaviour.

Looking at the long-term picture, between 2022 and 2024 falls in the Net Promoter Scores® of electricity providers had correlated closely with a sustained rise in switching behaviour.

After reaching a peak of -7 in the year to March 2022, Net Promoter Scores for electricity providers fell consistently over the next two years as surging electricity prices and cost of living concerns faced many Australians.

The Net Promoter Scores of electricity providers hit a low of -13 in the year to June 2024.

However, since the low point a year ago, Net Promoter Score have gradually turned around and have improved significantly so far this year – now at -8 in the latest figures to June 2025 indicating Australians are now increasingly more likely to recommend electricity providers to their friends than they were a year ago.

Of course, that negative sign (-8) means there are more detractors than promoters in this market.

The switching behaviour of electricity customers was on a steady increase from 2021 (14% in June 2021) to 2024 (a high of 18% in December 2024) – an increase of 4% points or around 500,000 customers.

However, since this peak, switching behaviour has now declined through the early months of 2025 as inflationary pressures and receded – with 16% of electricity customers switching in the year to June 2025 – a drop of 2% points from late last year.

For more in-depth data on the trends in NPS and switching behaviour in the Australian electricity market, visit the Roy Morgan website.