Roy Morgan Update June 11, 2025: Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence and New Zealand Voting Intention

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence and New Zealand Voting Intention.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update.

Finally, last week, more than a month after the Federal election, the final seat result was called. Bradfield in Sydney was awarded to Independent Nicolette Boele (Buller) after a recount – winning by only 26 votes.

The defeated Liberal Party is considering its options and may challenge the result in the Court of Disputed Returns.

Turning to consumer sentiment, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence based on interviews conducted last week, was virtually unchanged at 86.7.

Consumer Confidence has now averaged 86.7 for the last three weeks since the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut, below its average for the three weeks before the interest rate cut of 88.2.

Clearly, the interest rate cut has failed to provide a boost to consumer sentiment.

It’s easy to understand why Consumer Confidence has remained low despite the decisive election victory. Last week’s Australian GDP figures for the March Quarter were released showing quarterly growth of only 0.2% for the quarter and just 1.3% for the full year.

Both these figures represent a decline in per capita GDP growth – so the low level of Consumer Confidence is understandable.

One ‘brighter spot’ this week was the improvement in ‘net buying sentiment’ which improved by 3% points. Although still low, net buying sentiment is at its highest for over three years since April 2022 – just as the ‘End of Financial Year’ Sales kick-off.

An unwanted record was achieved this week with Consumer Confidence now clocking up over 3 years under 90 – the first time this has ever happened.

The last time the index was above 90 – still a number indicating a low level of confidence – was late May 2022.

During the last 3 years Consumer Confidence has averaged only 81.9 – more than 25 points below the long-term average since the early 1970s of 107.3.

This persistent low level of confidence is a major issue for the Albanese Government as it begins its second term and the Government needs to find policies to get the economy moving and increase the confidence of Australians.

In some better news, ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were down 0.3% to 4.7% last week.

Australians now expect inflation of 4.7% over each of the next two years – a figure in line with the long-term average of 4.8% for this measure over the last 15 years.

And now, how are businesses feeling. Australian Business Confidence for the month of May increased by 2.9 points to 99.6 – just below the neutral level of 100.

The increase to Business Confidence came after the Albanese Government’s decisive re-election victory – dispelling worries about a potential hung Parliament – and followed the suspension of many of US President Donald Trump’s high tariffs which had hit share-markets and Business Confidence in April.

Later in the month, there was of course also the decision by the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.85% - the lowest official interest rates have been for two years.

This Roy Morgan Business Confidence series is based on interviews with 1,500 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

The impact of the interest rate cut will be reflected in Business Confidence in June – and discussion about another potential interest rate cut in July should also provide positive momentum.

Driving Business Confidence higher was more confidence about the longer-term fortunes of the Australian economy over the next five years and more businesses saying ‘the next 12 months is a good time to invest in growing the business’.

Over the two months of April and May, the most confident industries were:

• Accommodation & Food Services which recorded a Business Confidence of 124.5, Public Administration & Safety on 121.4,
• Education & Training on 118.9,
• Electricity, gas, water & waste services on 117.2 and Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services on 111.7 – all above the national average.

At the other end of the scale, we have some familiar industries with those in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing on only 68.0 well below the national average and Transport, Postal & Warehousing on just 86.5.

And now a look across the Tasman to the political situation in New Zealand.

In May the Roy Morgan Poll shows the main governing party National on 31.5% just ahead of the Opposition Labour Party on 29% - both virtually unchanged on a month ago.

Mirroring the situation in Australia, both major parties are struggling to attract widespread support – this is the eighth straight month both parties have less than a third of total support.

There was movement in support for National’s governing partners ACT increased 3% to 12% - its highest support so far this year, while support for NZ First was down 2.5% to 6.5%.