Roy Morgan Update June 17, 2025: Consumer Confidence, Unemployment and MVNOs Growth

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, Unemployment and Australia’s Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) Growth.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update. And it seems all eyes are on the Middle East.

Although the Israeli strike on Iran, and the Iranian response, occurred late last week – they may already be having an impact on the Roy Morgan key weekly indicators - including Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations – with both indicators moving in a negative direction. And the Australian workforce contracting.

Around a fifth of both oil and gas is traded through the Persian Gulf – and these key exports for the global economy are at risk from any conflict in the region.

If the conflict continues to escalate – and potentially threaten the global energy supply – with a potential spike in prices for key commodities such as oil and gas,  it will have a devastating impact on global markets worldwide.

And at home the impact could be inflationary - which could, in turn, prevent the Reserve Bank from cutting interest rates in early July as is widely expected.

So how are we consumers feeling? The answer is less confident. The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence based on interviews conducted throughout last week, dropped 1.3 points to 85.4 – perhaps already impacted by the eruption of tensions in the Middle East.

This is the lowest Consumer Confidence Rating for seven weeks since late April – before the comprehensive election victory for the Albanese Government.

Driving Consumer Confidence lower was increasing concern about personal finances over the next 12 months – now 34% of Australians expect to be ‘worse off financially’ this time next year – up 4% points on a week ago and the highest rating for this indicator so far this year.

When Consumer Confidence falls, ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations tend to move in the opposite direction and this week is no different. Inflation expectations increased 0.2% to 4.9% last week.

Australians now expect inflation of 4.9% over each of the next two years – a figure just above the long-term average of 4.8% for this measure over the last 15 years.

Now to employment and unemployment – the measure that really matters – especially to those who are unemployed – and which must be a priority for the re-elected Albanese Government.

‘Real Unemployment’ in May is 10.9%, down 0.3% on a month ago - so, an estimated 1.72 million Australians are unemployed.

However, the fall in unemployment is not the ‘feel good’ story one might think it is – the drop in unemployment was not because people looking for work found jobs, it was due to people looking for work giving up and leaving the workforce.

 In fact, it's all about contraction in the Australian workforce.

 Roy Morgan estimates the workforce size (which adds together both the employed and unemployed) at just over 15.7 million – 15,740,000 in May, down 206,000 on a month ago and representing 68.3% of Australians aged 14+.

This is the lowest workforce size for over six months since October 2024.

Key employment indicators fell in May including full-time employment, part-time employment – and unemployment.

Roy Morgan estimates just over 14 million people were employed in May – 14,025,000 to be precise. That’s down 141,000 from a month ago - and its the lowest level of employment for over 18 months since November 2023. It represents 60.8% of Australians aged 14+.

The conclusion from these figures is a concerning one – that employment growth has weakened, and in fact gone backwards in recent months with fewer people employed and some people choosing to leave the workforce rather than continuing to look for work.

Looking forward the re-elected Albanese Government will need to prioritise getting the economy moving again creating jobs and keeping people in the workforce.

This is crucial for productivity.

Overall, total unemployment and under-employment – what we might call workforce under-utilisation – was 20% of the workforce in May – estimated at over 3.1 million people.

This is the sixth straight month total unemployment and under-employment has been above 3 million.

Now for something different. The Roy Morgan Telecommunications Industry team and data scientists have been exploring the changing Telecommunications market – and have found the cost of living crunch has created opportunities for MVNOs.

 What's an MVNO? Australia’s Mobile Virtual Network Operators (the MVNOs) –include brands such as Aldi Mobile, Tangerine, Kogan, Dodo, Aussie Broadband, Coles Mobile, and Everyday Mobile from Woolworths.

They’re resellers who use the network bandwidth of one of the main players such as Telstra, Optus or TPG Telecom.  

And the latest Roy Morgan data shows the ‘MVNOs’ or resellers  are increasing their share of Australia’s mobile phone market during a sustained cost-of-living crisis. And Australians are consistently recommending them to others.

This creates an interesting dynamic, Although the majors still have their network used by the ‘MVNOs’, they lose direct contact with the customer and therefore lose the ability to build relationships and cross-sell.

This chart shows The MVNOs have increased their share of mobile phone “Services’ from 17% in the 6 months to March 2021 to 19% in the 6 months to March 2025 – That’s an increase of 700,000 to 4.3 million services.