Roy Morgan Update June 18, 2024: ALP & L-NP support at 50%, Consumer & Business Confidence

In this week's Update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer & Business Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

The Albanese Government and the Liberal-National Coalition are now ‘dead even’ on two-party preferred terms: ALP 50% (down 3.5%) cf. Coalition 50% (up 3.5%).

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call with a hung parliament and the support of minor parties and independents required for either the ALP or Coalition to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.

In the last week Opposition Leader Peter Dutton advocated strongly for building nuclear power stations to provide stable baseload power and lower electricity and energy costs long-term.

Dutton also confirmed the Coalition would break the Albanese Government’s legislated commitment that Australia cut greenhouse emissions by 43 per cent by 2030.

So, primary support for the Coalition increased 3% to 38% this week. The increase for the Coalition came at the expense of the ALP, down 1% to 29.5%, and the Greens, down 2% to 13.5%.

Support for One Nation was down 0.5% to 5%, support for Other Parties was up 1.5% to 5.5% and support for Independents was down 1% at 8.5%.

Support for the minor parties plays a big role in the two-party preferred vote.

When support for the Greens rises due to issues such as Palestine or ‘climate change’ being in the news and top of mind, support for the ALP increases in two-party preferred terms.

When support for the Greens falls as the focus turns to economic and cost of living issues, support for the ALP in two-party preferred terms falls – as we saw this week.

Importantly, nearly a third of Australians, 32.5%, now support a minor party or independent, up almost 1% point from the 2022 Federal Election (31.7%).

The persistent high support for minor parties and independents increases the possibility we will end up with a hung Parliament after the election.

There was a level of recovery for the two key confidence measures this week.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence increased 5.5 points to 75.5 – this is still 25 points below the neutral level of 100 and a majority of 54.5% of Australians say the country is going in the wrong direction, only 30%, say the country is heading in the right direction.

There was also a recovery in consumer confidence. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence this week was up 3.3 points to 80.3 – still well below the neutral level of 100.

Looking longer-term, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 72 weeks below the level of 85, but at least now we’re out of the sub-80 recessionary zone.

Inflation Expectations were virtually unchanged this week. Australians now expect annual Inflation to be 4.9% over the next two years.

Inflation Expectations have been remarkably stable over the last six months and have stayed within a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3% for 28 weeks since early December.

So how are businesses faring and feeling?

Roy Morgan measures Business Confidence monthly and in May Roy Morgan’s Business Confidence was down 2.3 points to 97.0.

The Federal Budget delivered in early May has clearly failed to provide a boost to Business Confidence.

This result is not that surprising, businesses have rarely had a positive response to an ALP Federal Budget. Looking back, Business Confidence has dropped in five out of six years in May following an ALP Federal Budget.

Roy Morgan interviews around 1,500 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

Although views about business prospects and investment during the next 12 months dropped, longer-term views on the Australian economy marginally improved from a month ago.

Now only 39.6% of businesses expect to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (down 4.4%) and when it comes to investing in their own business just 38% say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’ (down 3%).