Roy Morgan Update June 24, 2025: Federal Vote before US bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan update.

The latest Roy Morgan survey on voting intention – conducted before the US bombing of the Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend and interviewed during the first three weeks of June – shows the ALP maintaining a commanding lead on 58% (down 0.5% from the month of May) ahead of the Coalition on only 42% (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis – a virtually unchanged result from the election-winning month.

The Labor primary vote was little changed at 37.5% still well ahead of the Coalition on 31%, also unchanged.

Support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 12% and One Nation was unchanged at 6%.

Support for Independents and Other Parties was down 1% to 13.5%.

There was another boost to Government Confidence – up 4.5 points since May to 101.5 points with more Australians saying the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (43%) than ‘wrong direction’ (41.5%).

This is the first time Government Confidence has been in positive territory above 100 for well over two years since February 2023.

Clearly Government Confidence depends on whether your side of politics is in power.

Roy Morgan data scientists analysed Government Confidence by Party support, and a clear story emerges.

Now a large majority of 65.5% of ALP supporters say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ – equating to a Government Confidence Rating of a massive 148.

In contrast, only 21.5% of Coalition supporters say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ – leading to a Government Confidence Rating of only 57 – well into negative territory.

Greens supporters have a positive Government Confidence Rating of 111.5.

However, One Nation supporters are deeply unhappy, a massive 89% say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ – and this equates to a Government Confidence Rating of only 19.5.

Supporters of Independents and Other Parties are slightly more pessimistic than optimistic with a Government Confidence Rating of 82.5.

Now to the key weekly indicators.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence based on interviews conducted throughout last week, increased 1.3 points to 86.7 – rebounding from last week’s fall of a similar magnitude.

Driving Consumer Confidence higher over the last week was more confidence in buying intentions which increased by a net 4% points this week.

Although still low, net buying intentions are now at their highest for over three years since April 2022.

A key driver of improved buyer sentiment is clearly the annual End of Financial Year Sales with Australians tipped to spend $10.5 Billion in the sales, up around $400 million (or + 3.9%) on a year ago – according to the Roy Morgan – Australian Retailers’ Association sales forecasts.

There was also good news on the inflation front this week, despite concerns about global energy supplies from the Middle East.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations tend to move in the opposite direction to Consumer Confidence and this week is no different. Inflation expectations dropped 0.2% to 4.7% last week.

Australians now expect inflation of 4.7% over each of the next two years – a figure just below the long-term average of 4.8% for this measure over the last 15 years.

And now the battle between Uber and taxis.

Roy Morgan’s latest data shows that in early 2025 over 7.4 million (almost one-third of Australians) used Uber while only 4.2 million (18%) used taxis – a gap of over 3 million Australians in favour of Uber.

Usage of Uber has surged since the end of pandemic restrictions in the December Quarter 2022, increasing by 1.7 million (around 30%). Usage of taxis has declined over the same period, down by 212,000 (almost 5%).

Even more striking is a comparison between usage of the two services today compared to pre-pandemic levels in late 2019.

Since the September Quarter 2019 usage of Uber has increased by over 2.1 million (over 40%) while usage of taxis has dropped by over 630,000 (around 13%).

One long-standing question Roy Morgan has asked Australians since the early 1980s is their attitude to marijuana: "In your opinion should the smoking of marijuana be made legal - or remain illegal?"

Now 48% of Australians support marijuana legalisation. That’s up 15% points over the past decade (from 33% in 2015).

41% believe marijuana should remain illegal. This is down 15% points since 2015, while 11% remain undecided.

The latest figures reflect a decisive shift in national sentiment towards legalisation of marijuana.