Roy Morgan Research
June 04, 2024

Roy Morgan Update June 4, 2024: ALP support drops, Consumer Confidence & Bunnings Most Trusted Brand

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 9729

In this week's Update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Most Trusted Brands.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

I’m Julian McCrann, the Manager of the Roy Morgan Poll, stepping in today for Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine who is unavailable, to deliver the weekly update.

The Albanese Government has regained the lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 52% (up 3.5%) ahead of the Coalition 48% (down 3.5%).

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.

Support for the Government improved after dumping the controversial ‘Directive 99’ and issuing a new directive to ensure community safety outweighs any other consideration when assessing the visa conditions of foreign-born criminals released from Australian prisons.

In addition, the devastating landslide in Papua New Guinea, which buried as many as 2,000 people last week, dominated the news headlines; while there finally appears to be progress towards peace in the Middle East with Israel and Hamas considering a three-phase peace deal to end the conflict.

This week primary support for the ALP increased 2.5% to 31% while support for the Coalition was down 1% to 36%.

This is the closest the two parties have been since before the Federal Budget in early May.

Support for the Greens was down 1% to 14%, support for One Nation decreased 1.5% to 4.5%, support for Other Parties was up 1% to 5.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9%.

On a two-party preferred basis the swing to the ALP was strongest amongst men at 5.5%, compared to a swing of 2.5% amongst women.

On a State basis the biggest swings to the ALP were in New South Wales (+7%), Victoria (+6%) and Queensland (+4.5%).

There were important policy announcements from ALP State Governments in New South Wales and Queensland in recent weeks.

The Queensland Government reduced all public transport fares to 50 cent for the next six months – a saving of thousands of dollars for many commuters in Brisbane.

The New South Wales Government announced Australia’s largest coal-fired power station, Eraring, would have its operating life extended for two years until 2027.

This will secure lower energy prices over the next two years for residents of New South Wales.

However, a concern for the Government will be the fall in Roy Morgan Government Confidence, down 5.5 points to 75.5 with a clear majority of Australians saying the country is heading in the wrong direction

55% say wrong direction, only 30.5%, say the country is heading in the right direction.

As a result, Roy Morgan Government Confidence remains well below the neutral level of 100.

This week ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 80.5.

Looking longer-term, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 70 weeks below the level of 85 and spent exactly 26 weeks (half a year) in a narrow band between 80-85.

There was virtually no movement in Inflation Expectations this week, up by 0.1% to 5.0%. Australians now expect annual Inflation to be 5.0% over the next two years.

Inflation Expectations have stayed within a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3% for 26 weeks (half a year) since early December.

This week Roy Morgan released the highly anticipated latest quarterly most trusted and distrusted brands survey results – and for a second straight quarter – Bunnings is Australia’s most trusted brand.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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