Roy Morgan Update March 18, 2025: ALP support up, Consumer Confidence & Unemployment

In this week's update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence and Unemployment.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update.

Just 3 weeks after the Reserve Bank interest rate cut – Australians’ economic honeymoon is over.

Consumer confidence, inflation expectations are both back to where they were before the interest rate cut.

And ‘real unemployment’ and ‘workforce under-utilisation’ for the month of February are the highest they’ve been since the middle of the pandemic – 4 years ago.

But politically, (pause) Following Cyclone Alfred, and amid significant international uncertainty and unrest – including President Trump putting 15% tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium exports to the United States – the swing to the Albanese Government a week ago has been confirmed and followed up for a second week.

In mid-March the Roy Morgan Poll has the ALP on 54.5% (up 3%) increasing its lead over the Coalition on 45.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

This is the ALP’s largest lead in the Roy Morgan survey for over 18 months since August 2023.

And, for the first time in over nine months the Albanese Government has a two-party preferred lead that would deliver the party a clear majority in Parliament.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned and increase their majority in Parliament.

Analysis of the primary vote shows the battle is now NOT all about preferences. The movement is in primary support for the major parties

Compared to two weeks ago Coalition primary support is down 6% to 34% - its lowest since October 2023. Labor support is up 4% to 32.5%. Support for the Greens and Independents is unchanged, while support for One Nation and Other Parties has increased over the last two weeks

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton made a rare misstep two weeks ago when the Coalition asserted an L-NP Government would end working from home arrangements and force public servants to return to the office five days a week. Although the Opposition Leader has walked this pledge back in recent days, it appears to have done significant damage to the Coalition’s broader support.

The uncertain global environment with continuing unrest in Ukraine and the new tariffs on Australian exports of steel and aluminium announced by US President Donald Trump are also factors playing against the Opposition Leader.

The ALP has consistently attempted to associate Dutton with President Trump and Trump’s more controversial policies and rhetoric.

This campaign may be starting to have an impact as Trump’s actions, including imposing tariffs, begin to directly impact Australians – and negatively impact on Dutton’s popularity.

There have also been several ALP negative attack ads aimed at Dutton - highlighting his share investments and housing portfolio - designed to portray the Opposition Leader as ‘out of touch’ with the average Australian.

Its worth remembering, historically in times of international unrest and uncertainty, and natural disasters, there is often a rise in support for the incumbent Government – and this was a clear factor during the early days of the COVID pandemic.

Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) increased 3 points to 84.5.

However, this is still well below the neutral level because more Australians say the country is going in the wrong direction (50.5%), that the right direction (35%)

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.1 points to 83.8.

The drop was broad based in every mainland State, and Consumer Confidence in Queensland remains the lowest of any State in the week of recovery after Cyclone Alfred.

The national reading of 83.8 is the lowest Consumer Confidence so far this year and the indicator has now fallen for three straight weeks after spiking in mid-February following the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut.

The Reserve Bank next meets in two weeks’ time and if Consumer Confidence continues to fall we can expect to see growing calls for another interest rate cut.

Inflation Expectations increased 0.1% to 4.8% this week - and are now essentially back at the level they were at the time of the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut.

Australians now expect inflation of 4.8% over each of the next two years.

Now to employment and unemployment – the measure that really matters – especially to those who are unemployed.

‘Real Unemployment’ in February is 11.5%, up 1.4% on a month ago - so, an estimated 1.83 million Australians are unemployed - the highest for over four years since February 2021.

The driver of this increase in unemployment was the large fall in full-time employment, down 273,000 to 9,356,000, and a drop in part-time employment, down 99,000 to 4,767,000, which forced many people in the labour market into looking for new work.

In a nut-shell fewer jobs so employed people became unemployed and had to look for work.

These labour force movements led to a large increase in people looking for part-time jobs (up 221,000 to 1,058,000) although the number looking for full-time jobs was little unchanged at 776,000.