Roy Morgan Update May 6, 2025: Roy Morgan aces Election, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update.

And what an interesting weekend we’ve had with the Albanese Government re-elected with an increased majority – as Roy Morgan predicted last week and for the previous seven weeks since mid-March when the ALP took a decisive lead.

In the week prior to the election consumer confidence increased and inflation expectations decreased – foreshadowing positive support for the Government.

The latest Australian Electoral Commission results show a two-party preferred result of 54.6% for the ALP compared to 45.4% for the Coalition – This result is based on 63% of vote counted. The results are tightening as postal votes are counted and projections suggest a final result close to 54% ALP to 46% Coalition.

The final Roy Morgan Poll released on Friday May 2 – the night before Election Day – showed the ALP ahead 53% to 47% based on respondent allocated preferences.

When the Roy Morgan Poll preferences were allocated based on how they flowed at the previous Federal Election, this widened showing the ALP ahead 54% to 46% - in line with the projected final result.

The four weekly Roy Morgan Polls released in April averaged ALP 54.1% to Coalition 45.9% - so this was not a late swing, the ALP was consistently ahead throughout the entire election campaign.

The preliminary results of the election count suggest Roy Morgan over-estimated the Greens and under-estimated Labor by a similar amount – but had support for Labor-Greens combined at 46.5% - currently at 46.6%.

Roy Morgan also over-estimated support for the Coalition at 34.5% compared to a current result of 32.2% - although this is expected to rise and close that gap as postal votes are counted.

The over estimation of the Coalition was similar to the underestimation published for Independents/Other Parties – suggesting some Coalition voters drifted to minor party alternatives and sent their preferences back to the Coalition.

Roy Morgan was clearly the most accurate pollster when measuring One Nation support at 6.5% - currently reported at 6.3%, and Trumpet of Patriots support at 2% - currently reported at 1.9%.

Of course, there’s always a frenzy of excitement about polls at election time – its important to remember the value of polls is not as a predictor of an election – even a month or so out. AS Roy Morgan who began polling in the 40s pointed out, The real value is in having a continuous measure of how the people of Australia feel about their Government , the policies and the direction the country is going. And faithfully reporting the voice of the people, accurately, independently, and continuously.

As Roy Morgan said, without this we leave it to politicians and journalists to claim to speak for the people

For further details– visit the Roy Morgan website.

In good news for the re-elected Labor Government, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence, increased 4.1 points to 87.5.

AS mentioned this was mostly surveyed before the election – but it’s a nice way to start.

The driver of the rise was increased confidence in personal finances with 28% (up 2%) saying they expect to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 27% (down 3%) that expect to be ‘worse off’ – now the only indicator in positive territory.

And, Inflation Expectations decreased 0.2% to 4.9% this week. (again mostly surveyed before the election)

Australians now expect inflation of 4.9% over each of the next two years.

And now to business, In April, Business Confidence dropped significantly, down 9.3 points to 96.7 – it’s lowest so far this year.

– these results are from surveys completed entirely before the weekend’s Federal Election.

This result is based on interviews with 1,500 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

As well as a Federal Election campaign in Australia, there was also significant upheaval on international markets during the month – US President Donald Trump announced his so-called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on April 2^nd – Thursday morning in Australia.

The tariff announcement caused massive volatility on global stock-markets and currency markets – including in Australia.

Although Australia was let off relatively lightly with only a general 10% tariff, our largest trading partner of China was hit with very high tariffs – as high as 145% on some goods.

Although markets have now recovered many of the early losses, the global uncertainty certainly hit Business Confidence during the month – all five indicators moved in a negative direction – especially those related to businesses’ own prospects.

There was additional uncertainty with a Federal Election campaign throughout the month. In 2022 in the lead-up to that year’s Federal Election, Business Confidence dropped by an even more significant 12.8 points.

The drop in Business Confidence must be of concern to the ALP Government, who – no doubt – will be working to increase business confidence over the next 6 months.