August 14, 2022

The ALP in Victoria increases its large election-winning lead from a month ago: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%

Topic: Morgan Poll Review, Press Release, Public Opinion, Special Poll, State Poll
Finding No: 9038
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The ALP on 60.5% (up 1% point from early July) has increased its election-winning lead in Victoria over the L-NP on 39.5% (down 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis, according to a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll conducted from Thursday August 11 – Saturday August 13, 2022.

The result of the Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll represents an increase in support for the ALP of 3.2% points from the 2018 Victorian State Election won by the ALP 57.3% cf. L-NP 42.7% and the Government led by Premier Daniel Andrews is on track to increase its already large majority in the Victorian Parliament.

ALP two-party support in Melbourne is 61.5% while 58.5% in the rest of Victoria. Although the ALP has increased its two-party preferred result since early July, primary support for both major parties is down. Support for the ALP is down 3% points to 40.5% while support for the L-NP was down by 2% points to 27.5%. Support for the Greens increased, up 2% points to 14%.

The total support for other minor parties and independents has increased by 3% points to 18%. This includes Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 2% (unchanged), Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party on 1.5% (up 0.5% points). A further 5% of Victorians support a ‘Teal Independent’, up 2% points from early July while 9.5% (up 0.5% points) support Other Parties or Independents.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,097 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted from Thursday August 11, 2022, to Saturday August 13, 2022.

Approval for Premier Daniel Andrews remains strong and Andrews has increased his lead over Opposition Leader Matthew Guy as preferred Premier

This Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll found 62.5% (down 1% point since early July) of Victorian electors approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job, while 37.5% (up 1% point) now disapprove.

Electors were then asked “Thinking of Premier Daniel Andrews and Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. In your opinion, who would make the ‘Better Premier’?”

The contest between the two leaders is clearly in favour of the incumbent with 66% (up 1.5% points) of electors saying Daniel Andrews ‘Would make the better Premier’ compared to only 34% (down 1.5% points) say Matthew Guy – a margin of nearly 2:1 in favour of the incumbent. Daniel Andrew’s support ’to make the better Premier’ is higher in Melbourne (68%) than the rest of Victoria (61.5%).

Electors were then asked: “What, if anything, would concern you about a re-elected ALP Government under Premier Daniel Andrews?” and “What, if anything, would concern you about a potential Liberal-National Government led by Matthew Guy?”

In terms of a re-elected ALP Government led by Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews there were several key themes that emerged including many mentions of allegations of corruption and the personal lack of accountability of Premier Andrews for his actions.

Many respondents referred to his lack of integrity, his dishonesty and lies while the theme of cost over-runs, reckless spending and high debt levels was also prominent. There were several respondents that described Andrews as ‘arrogant’ and with a ‘dictatorial governing style’ and concerns about the state of health care in Victoria, but the vast majority of ALP supporters said there was ‘nothing’ that concerns them.

In relation to a potential Liberal-National Government led by Matthew Guy the alleged corruption was a major issue that emerged, along with ‘jobs for mates’ and questions regarding his integrity.

Many respondents cited Guy’s lack of experience and general incompetence for leadership as concerns. There were also significant worries about Guy’s weakness as a leader and that he is ‘not strong enough’ as a leader which creates a divided and dysfunctional party.

There were also concerns about the religious influences within the Liberal Party and respondents also questioned their policies on climate change, first nations reconciliation and the impression the Liberal Party is only out to look out for its mates, the big end of town. A significant number of respondents simply said “everything” concerns them about a potential L-NP Government led by Matthew Guy though most Liberal supporters stuck by their party and said there was ‘nothing’ that concerned them.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,097 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted from Thursday August 11, 2022, to Saturday August 13, 2022.

Detailed analysis of all questions is available to be purchase for $9,800. The report shows analysis by all major demographics including by Gender, Age, Melb/Rest of Vic. including Voting Intention, Approval or Disapproval of Premier Daniel Andrews, Better Premier between Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy and detailed quantitative and qualitative verbatim responses to the open-ended questions regarding concerns about a re-elected ALP Government led by Daniel Andrews or a potential Liberal-National Government led by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. For more details contact Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.
By Email: julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com. By Phone: 0434 361 298.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email 
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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