November 12, 2020

Victorian ALP (58.5%) streaks ahead of L-NP (41.5%). Premier Daniel Andrews approval jumps 12% to 71%

Finding No: 8568
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ALP two-party support has jumped 7% to 58.5% after the end of Victoria’s nearly four-month lockdown compared to the L-NP on 41.5% according to a Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on Victorian voting intention conducted yesterday and on Monday.

ALP two-party support has jumped 7% to 58.5% after the end of Victoria’s nearly four-month lockdown compared to the L-NP on 41.5% according to a Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on Victorian voting intention conducted yesterday and on Monday.

The Roy Morgan survey also found 71% of Victorian electors approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job, up 12% since mid-October while 29% disapprove, down 12%.


ALP primary support jumps, L-NP support slumps

Primary support for the ALP is now at 45%, up 5% points from four weeks ago and well ahead of the L-NP on 34.5%, down 5.5% points.

Support for the Greens is up slightly to 11% (up 2% points) while support for Other Parties is down 0.5% to 5.5%. A further 4% of Victorians are now supporting Independent candidates, down 1% point.


ALP holds massive two-party preferred lead in Melbourne and amongst women

The ending of the lockdown has seen the ALP’s lead strengthen significantly among key demographic groups since mid-October with Melburnians now supporting the ALP 62% (up 8.5%) cf. L-NP (38%, down 8.5%).

Country Victorians have also swung behind the Andrews Government with the ALP on 52% (up 5.5%) compared to the L-NP on 48% (down 5.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

Women have swung strongly in favour of the ALP on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 62.5% (up 9.5%) cf. L-NP 37.5% (down 9.5%). Men are also now in support of the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support for the ALP 54% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 46% (down 4%).


Women and young people give highest marks for Premier Andrews’ handling of his job

Nearly three-quarters of women (74%) approve of the Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of his job as Premier, up 11% points from mid-October, compared to 69% (up 14%) of men.

Approval for the Premier’s handling of his job as Premier is correlated to age with younger people giving the Premier the highest job approval. However, the biggest increases in job approval compared to mid-October are from older Victorians. Now over three-quarters of people aged under 35 (78%, up 5%) approve compared to 71% (up 9%) aged 35-49, 69% (up 14%) aged 50-64 and 64% (up 22%) of those aged 65+ years old.

A large and increasing majority of 82% (up 11%) of ALP supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens supporters (90%, unchanged), now approve of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of his job.

A sizeable minority of L-NP supporters, 40% (up 9%) now approve of the Premier’s handling of his job and two-thirds of supporters of Independents/Others 67% (up 8%).


Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:

Block Quote

“Victorian ALP two-party preferred support has jumped 7% points from a month ago after the end of Melbourne’s 16-week lockdown. The Victorian ALP 58.5% (up 7% since mid-October) now has a commanding lead over the L-NP 41.5% (down 7%) on a two-party preferred basis.

“ALP primary support increased 5% points to 45% while L-NP support slumped 5.5% points to 34.5% after Stage 4 restrictions in Melbourne were lifted in the last week of October.

“Premier Daniel Andrews has also seen his approval rating increase substantially by 12% points to 71% while only 29% of Victorian electors (down 12%) now disapprove of his handling of the job.”

Respondents who were asked whether they approve or disapprove of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job were then asked: “And why do you say that?”


Approval of Premier Daniel Andrews high following handling of the COVID-19 pandemic

For the 71% of Victorians who approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job were mainly in praise of how he’d handled the difficulties of the COVID-19 pandemic and his willingness to take tough decisions and front up and explain what decisions were being made and why and to get the job done and not be influenced by media not to follow through on his policy.

“He was a good strong and committed leader throughout the pandemic and he’s also been working well on infrastructure projects.”

“The way COVID-19 breached the hotel quarantine was purely unlucky.”

“Andrews followed science-based evidence and made daily appearances to provide facts to the public.”

“He got the COVID outbreak under control by knuckling down and getting the job done while everyone was playing politics around him.”

“He’s actually taking action to manage the situation unlike the opposition who have been constantly whining to re-open everything at every single stage.”

“He’s made the tough calls even if they are unpopular which is what makes a good leader.”

“Because he just got us out of the pandemic. Prior to that there’s been good development of roads, railways and other infrastructure.”

“No one is perfect but he’s done a good job through such a hard time.”

“As I think he has taken the difficult but necessary steps to protect the health of Victorians while at the same time supporting businesses and the economy as best as possible.”

“He managed to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control in Victoria.”

“Safety before political ratings.”

“Victoria now has 0 cases of COVID-19”

“Control of COVID-19 after the resurgence.”

“He acted on the advice of experts, he hasn’t been political.”

“He is an excellent leader. He turns up every day, is informed by the science and he is funding some terrific initiatives as we move to COVID-normal.”

“I think he’s done the best he can for us during uncertain times in the pandemic.”

“It was a hard job and he got us to the other side.”

“Some aspects of his COVID management could have been better, but overall, he has done a good job.”

“It’s unprecedented times and he is doing the best he can with so many unknowns.”

“He’s handled the second outbreak well and stuck to his plan amid public and media pressure.”

“He made the decisions that needed to be made and wasn’t swung by the media.”

“Because I don’t think anyone could have done the job as efficiently as Daniel Andrews did.”

“The state has made a good recovery from the pandemic.”

“Because he has lowered the COVID numbers and made our great state a safer place to live.”

“Mr. Andrews has made the state safe from COVID-19 withstanding pressure from his opponents.”

“Given the circumstances Dan has done the best job possible.”

“I think he deserves all the credit for the way he handled the pandemic.”

“While our lockdown has been severe it has worked.”

“A courageous, consistent and scientific approach to the virus has paid off.”

“He was there every day for us.”

“No need COVID cases for over a week and the state is opening-up carefully.”

“His handling of the pandemic and the serious lack of competition.”

“Dan has stood strong for Victoria and now we are seeing that staying on course has worked.”

“He makes the hard decisions and sticks to his guns. If not for the hotel security fiasco everyone would be singing his praises. He’d be a hero.”

“He showed his leadership during the second wave of the virus.”

“I’m old and have several co-morbidities and he has helped keep me safe.”

“Coronavirus is nearly defeated through the tough but necessary measures taken by Andrews.”

“He has got COVID numbers down to zero and I feel safe.”

“He puts people’s health first above all. He is fair, focused, strong and compassionate.”

“Who is there that could do better? We have never faced anything like this since the flu pandemic years ago. Mistakes have been made but he stuck to what the experts advised, and it looks like we’ve come through. There are people who always think they know better.”

“He has demonstrated leadership in an incredibly challenging environment.”

“Andrews has really cared about controlling COVID-19 in comparison to other parts of the world.”

“It worked. He made mistakes but made things good again and persevered until he succeeded.”

“He achieved what he set out to do, even though it has been tough.”

“He has made choices that have kept me safe.”

“He’s steered Victoria back to a good position with COVID.”

“Coronavirus numbers are down to zero.”

“The pandemic has been well-managed since the quarantine shortcomings and he, and others, have redeemed the situation.”

“It’s the first pandemic in our lives and apart from the initial poor hotel quarantine he and the team have led the world rounding up this terrible virus.”

“He has done an unenviable job in Victoria during the pandemic.”

“The Premier has the welfare and wellbeing of all Victorians first and foremost.”

“The virus infection numbers speak for themselves.”

“It has been hard and unpopular, but he stuck to his guns and we got there. Somebody else might have opened up too soon and we would be back where we started.”

“He doesn’t take risks with our health and safety.”

“I believe he’s done a good job in extraordinarily difficult times that no other Premier has had to deal with.”

“He has held firm against a lot of pressure to sort out a bad situation.”


Disapproval of Daniel Andrews centres on hotel quarantine failures and the devastating lockdown as well as alleged shortcomings in his character

The 29% of Victorians that disapprove of Premier Daniel Andrews handling of the job as Premier mentioned the bungling of hotel quarantine, the harshness of the lockdown policies and the ongoing restrictions, the inconsistency of policies in relation to COVID-19 and not properly considering the economic impact of the decisions being made and his alleged incompetence and lying.

“In Australia 70% of cases and 90% of COVID-19 deaths happened in Victoria. The Victorian Government failed at hotel quarantine and responded too slowly when infections started to rise a second time.”

“Not balancing the economy and mental health in his decisions.”

“Not happy with how he handled the COVID hotel debacle.”

“Hotel quarantine debacle and then he lied. He hasn’t learned a thing and about to do it all again.”

“All restrictions should be lifted NOW.”

“He stuffed up the hotel quarantine debacle and won’t own it.”

“No accountability and not listening.”

“To slow to re-open. I agreed with the process to begin with, but too slow to react to the detriment of the economy and mental health. We should not be wearing masks, there is no evidence they work.”

“He has failed to tell the truth regarding hotel quarantine. Due to that situation alone we have had to have one of the harshest and toughest lockdowns.”

“He has caused all the problems.”

“Hotel quarantine disaster.”

“Hotel quarantine cock-up made a laughing stock of all Victorians. Times like these he could have scored so many credits but his selfish motives have impacted our state.”

“The hotel quarantine was a job for his mates and he stuffed it up.”

“Not consistent in the rules he set and the rules didn’t apply to all.”

“800 people have died because of his decisions.”

“Because of all the mistakes he has made and not admitting to them, instead he says, ‘I don’t recall.’”

“He caused the pandemic to spread by not containing hotel quarantine. He is too full of his own power.”

“He is arrogant, self-opinionated and has dictator like beliefs.”

“He’s a liar, dishonest, egotistical, dictator, dishonest, untrustworthy, spin over substance and truth.”

“The hotel fiasco and destroying so many businesses.”

“Because the restrictions were too long harming business and tourism.”

“He is a liar and was responsible for the hotel quarantine fiasco for which he has refused to accept any responsibility whatsoever.”

“I believe it’s his fault we have been in lockdown for so long.”

“Bad control of security quarantine and a bad community tracing program.”

“He’s incompetent, unaccountable and dictatorial.”

“Total incompetence with a second wave caused by botched hotel quarantine, deception and lack of honesty to the general public couldn’t be greater.”

“He has taken far too long to get Victoria out of lockdown. Victorians should have learnt a lesson by now and follow the COVID rules – i.e. masks being clean and social distancing.”

“Andrews has too much power. The State of Emergency should be bipartisan. He has achieved a wonderful outcome, but I am against him having the State of Emergency power.”

“He extended the lockdown deadline three times and hasn’t been honest about government mistakes.”

“He has no honour or integrity.”

“His failure to explain the hotel quarantine stuff-up which cost so many lives. Decision making can be traced back to his office but he won’t take responsibility.”

“No accountability or integrity regarding the lockdown decisions taken without any scientific support. The worst Premier and politician I’ve seen in my life.”

“The lockdown was for far too long and masks should not be required for summer.”

“He has no memory of very important decisions that affected millions of Victorians. That is not credible. Andrews has no idea of the damage he has done to lives, businesses and families.”

“He lectures the public rather than explain his reasons for making decisions and treats us like naughty children while it’s his government’s mishandling of the quarantine system that created the 2nd wave.”

“He needs to be charged with manslaughter and let the courts decide under cross-examination.”

“Absolutely self-centred egotistical arsehole with no consideration for the people of Victoria.”

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 818 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted on Monday November 9 – Tuesday November 10, 2020.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email 
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Question 1:

If a State Election for Victoria were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?"

Victorian Primary Voting Intention. By Gender & Region

Victorian Electors 18+

Gender

Region

PRIMARY

2018 Vic
Election

Sep 28-29,
2020

Oct 12-13,
2020

Nov 9-10,
2020

Men

Women

Melbourne

Country
Areas

VOTE

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

42.9

39

40

45

40

50

47.5

41.5

Liberal

30.4

37

36

30.5

33.5

27.5

30

32.5

National

4.8

2.5

4

4

4

3

0.5

7

L-NP

35.2

39.5

40

34.5

37.5

30.5

30.5

39.5

Greens

10.7

10

9

11

11.5

10.5

14.5

6.5

Others

5.1

6

6

5

5.5

5

4

7

Ind.

6.1

5.5

5

4.5

5.5

4

3.5

5.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Victorian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention. By Gender & Region

Victorian Electors 18+ Gender Region
2018 Vic
Election
Sep 28-29,
2020
Oct 12-13,
2020
Nov 9-10,
2020
Men Women Melbourne Country
Areas
2PP % % % % % % % %
ALP 57.3 51.5 51.5 58.5 54 62.5 62 52
L-NP 42.7 48.5 48.5 41.5 46 37.5 38 48
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Question 2:

Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Daniel Andrews is handling his job as Premier of Victoria? By Gender & Age

Victorians 18+

Gender

Age

Sep 8-9,
2020

Sep 28-29,
2020

Oct 12-13,
2020

Nov 9-10,
2020

Men

Women

Under 35

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

70

61

59

71

69

74

78

71

69

64

Disapprove

30

39

41

29

31

26

22

29

31

36

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

By Melbourne & Country Victoria

Victorians
18+

Melbourne

Country Victoria

%

%

%

Approve

71

72

70

Disapprove

29

28

30

TOTAL

100

100

100

By Party Vote (Federal)

Victorian
Electors

Party Vote

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/Others

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

69

40

82

90

67

69

Disapprove

31

60

18

10

33

31

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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