September 18, 2020

Victorian ALP Government support now 51.5% would win a close election with L-NP on 48.5%

Topic: Press Release, Public Opinion, State Poll
Finding No: 8521
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In Victoria support for the ALP is now at 51.5% compared to the L-NP on 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis according to a special Roy Morgan SMS survey on Victorian voting intention with a cross-section of 1,147 Victorian electors aged 18+ over the last few days.

In Victoria support for the ALP is now at 51.5% compared to the L-NP on 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis according to a special Roy Morgan SMS survey on Victorian voting intention with a cross-section of 1,147 Victorian electors aged 18+ over the last few days.

The two-party preferred support for the ALP has dropped a significant 5.8% points since the 2018 Victorian State Election while L-NP support is up 5.8% points.

Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Victorian voting intention shows that if a Victorian Election were held today the ALP would be returned with a narrow majority for a third term of Government.


Primary Vote for ALP plunges since 2018 State Election

Primary support for the ALP is now at 37%, down 5.9% points since the 2018 Victorian State Election and now behind the L-NP on 38.5% (up 3.3% points).

Support for the Greens is up slightly to 12% (up 1.3% points) while support for Other Parties has increased to 8.5% (up 3.4% points). A further 4% of Victorians are now supporting Independent candidates, down 2.1% points from the 2018 Victorian State Election.


Two-Party Preferred support splits by Region & Gender

Two clear splits have emerged in Victoria with city-dwellers in Melbourne and women supporting the ALP on a two-party preferred basis while Country Victorians and men are more likely to support the L-NP.

Women clearly favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support at 57% compared to only 43% for the L-NP. In contrast a majority of 53.5% of men support the L-NP compared to 46.5% supporting the ALP.

Melburnians (who comprise the bulk of the population of Victoria) favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support of 53.5% compared to 46.5% for the L-NP while in Country Victoria support for the L-NP is at 55% compared to only 45% for the ALP.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,147 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted on Tuesday September 15 – Thursday September 17, 2020.


Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the ALP would still be the favourite if a Victorian State Election were held today although support for the L-NP has risen substantially since 2018:

“The Second Wave of COVID-19 in Victoria has led to a tightening between the two major parties with the ALP on 51.5% only narrowly ahead of the L-NP on 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis in mid-September.

“ALP support has dropped substantially since the 2018 Victorian State Election with primary support down nearly 6% points to 37%. This support has flowed to several parties including the Opposition L-NP, up 3.3% points to 38.5%, the Greens, up 1.3% points to 12% and Other Parties up 3.4% points to 8.5%.

“However, the big split that has emerged is between the genders and between Melbourne and Country Victoria. The ALP retains big leads amongst women (57% cf. 43%) and in Melbourne (53.5% cf. 46.5%), but the L-NP is now well ahead with men (53.5% cf. 46.5%) and in Country Victoria (55% cf. 45%).

“As Victoria (hopefully) emerges from the Second Wave of COVID-19 in the next couple of months the big issues will revolve around supporting businesses and re-booting the Victorian economy and providing jobs for the hundreds of thousands of Victorians now looking for new work.

“The next two years presents a huge test for the ALP to rebuild it’s credibility after the devastating impact of the second wave of COVID-19 following mis-steps in the Victorian hotel quarantine program for returned travellers and inadequate contact tracing and testing in Victoria compared to its counterpart in New South Wales.”

Victorian electors were asked: "If a State Election for Victoria were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?"

For further comment or more information contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309 or email 
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Victorian Primary Voting Intention. By Gender & Region

Victorians 18+

Gender

Region

2018 Victorian
Election

Sep 15-17,
2020

Women

Men

Melbourne

Country
Areas

PRIMARY VOTE

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

42.9

37

40.5

33.5

39

29.5

Liberal

30.4

35

31

38.5

36

31.5

National

4.8

3.5

3

4.5

0.5

13.5

L-NP

35.2

38.5

34

43

36.5

45

Greens

10.7

12

15.5

8.5

11.5

13

Others

5.1

8.5

6.5

10.5

9

8

Independents

6.1

4

3.5

4.5

4

4.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

Victorian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention. By Gender & Region

Victorians 18+

Gender

Region

2018 Victorian
Election

Sep 15-17,
2020

Women

Men

Melbourne

Country
Areas

2PP

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

57.3

51.5

57

46.5

53.5

45

L-NP

42.7

48.5

43

53.5

46.5

55

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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