October 14, 2020

Victorian ALP still ahead of the L-NP at 51.5% Vs. 48.5%; Premier Andrews’ approval down 2% to 59%

Topic: Press Release, State Poll
Finding No: 8542
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ALP two-party support at 51.5% has held firm over the last two weeks with L-NP on 48.5%, according to a Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on Victorian voting intention conducted yesterday and on Monday.

The Roy Morgan survey also found 59% of Victorian electors approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job as Premier of Victoria, while 41% disapprove. This 59% level of approval for the Premier is down a small 2% in 2 weeks but is substantially lower than the 70% approval he enjoyed in September 8-9, 2020.

Major parties increase their primary support at the expense of minor parties and independents

Primary support for the ALP is now at 40%, up 1% point from two weeks ago and level with the L-NP on 40% (up 0.5% points).

Support for the Greens is down slightly to 9% (down 1% point) while support for Other Parties is unchanged at 6%. A further 5% of Victorians are now supporting Independent candidates, down 0.5% points from two weeks ago.

ALP holds two-party preferred lead in Melbourne and amongst women

City dwellers in Melbourne continue to favour the Andrews Government on a two-party preferred basis with the ALP on 53.5% cf. 46.5% L-NP. This situation is reversed in Country Victoria with the L-NP 53.5% having the edge over the ALP 46.5%.

Women continue to favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%. However, men can’t split the two major parties with the ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50% on a two-party preferred basis.

clearly favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support at 57% compared to only 43% for the L-NP. In contrast a majority of 53.5% of men support the L-NP compared to 46.5% supporting the ALP.

Women and young people give higher marks for Premier Andrews’ handling of his job than others

Nearly two-thirds of women (63%) approve of the Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of his job as Premier, down 5% points from two weeks ago, compared to 55% (up 1%) of men.

Approval for the Premier’s handling of his job as Premier is heavily correlated to age. Nearly three-quarters of people aged under 35 (73%) approve compared to 62% aged 35-49, 55% aged 50-64 but only 42% of those aged 65+ years old.

A large majority of 71% of ALP supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens supporters (90%), now approve of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of his job.

However, there has been a decline in how L-NP supporters regard the Premier’s handling of his job, with only 31% approving the job he’s doing. Supporters of Independents/Others are in line with the electorate at large with 59% approving of his handling of the job.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:

“Although support for ending Stage 4 restrictions has increased significantly in 2 weeks, there is only a small drop in Premier Daniel Andrews approval (59%, down 2%) and support for the ALP Government’s two-party support at 51.5% is unchanged.

 “Approval of Premier Andrews’ job as Premier remains strong amongst ALP voters (71%) and Greens voters (90%). While just under a third of L-NP voters (31%) approve of the Premier’s handling of the job.

“On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP at 51.5% maintains its lead over the L-NP 48.5%. The movements in primary voting intention saw the major parties pick up support at the expense of smaller rivals. The ALP picked up 1% point at the expense of the Greens (down 1%) and the L-NP picked up 0.5% points at the expense of Independents.

“The increasingly partisan nature of how Victorians are responding to the restrictions is likely behind the movements this Roy Morgan survey. Supporters of the restrictions have gravitated towards the ALP in recent weeks while those against are more likely to shift their vote to the L-NP with the minor parties losing out in both cases. The net impact on the two-party preferred vote is unchanged.”

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 899 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted on Monday October 13 – Tuesday October 14, 2020.

Question 1:

If a State Election for Victoria were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?"

Victorian Primary Voting Intention. By Gender & Region

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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