Roy Morgan Research
January 10, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.9pts to 87.4 in traditional New Year’s bounce – highest since September 2022

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9140
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumped by 4.9pts to 87.4 this week to reach its highest for over three months since late September 2022 (87.8). However, Consumer Confidence is a large 18.6pts below the same week a year ago, January 4-9, 2022 (106.0). Consumer Confidence is now only 1.3pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7.

During the fifty year history of the Consumer Confidence index we have usually seen an increase in Consumer Confidence in the New Year, although this long-running trend was not in evidence during the bushfires of 2019-20 and the COVID-19 pandemic of the last two years.

This week’s increase of 4.9pts to start 2023 is the first increase in the first week of January for five years since January 2018 when the first weekly result was 122.0 (January 6/7, 2018), up 5.5 points on the last week of December 16/17, 2017 (116.5).

Consumer Confidence was up around Australia in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia but was down in Western Australia.

There were improvements across the index especially concerning views of personal finances and the Australian economy’s performance over the next year as well as improved sentiment regarding whether now is a ‘good/bad time to buy’ major household items.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 45% (down 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, a third of Australians, 33% (up 3ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while slightly fewer, 28% (down 5ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 9% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to slightly less than a third, 32% (down 3ppts), that expect ‘bad times.’

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term is still very weak with only 14% (up 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 17% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • When it comes to buying intentions now over a quarter, 26% (up 4ppts) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 45% (down 3ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

Block Quote

Consumer confidence jumped 4.9pts to 87.4 last week, reaching its highest level since late September 2022. This was the first new year’s jump in confidence since 2018. While homeowners paying off mortgages are still reporting lower confidence than renters and outright owners, average confidence among all three groups rose in the new year. Despite the new year jump, confidence is still well below the neutral level (100) and the long-run average of 111.7. Household inflation expectations eased significant by 0.9ppt from the last print of 2022, suggesting cautious optimism about lower inflation through 2023.

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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