Roy Morgan Research
October 29, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations drop to 4.6% in late October – down from 4.7% for the month of September

Topic: Inflation Expectation
Finding No: 9733

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.6% for the week of October 21-27, 2024. This figure is below the average this year of 4.9%, and down 0.1% points from the month of September.

A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for September 2024 shows the measure at 4.7% for the month – down 0.3% points from a month earlier and below the average so far this year of 4.9%.

Looking back over the first nine months of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.5% - 5.3% and averaged 4.9%. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.

Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – Sept. 2024).

Petrol prices dropped by seven cents per litre in September to the lowest since May 2023

The month of September saw average retail petrol prices drop by seven cents per litre to $1.79 per litre. After the month of September ended average retail petrol prices have subsequently remained low at below $1.78 per litre while weekly inflation expectations dropped to their lowest in over three years in mid-October.

Looking back, average retail petrol prices have now been above $1.70 per litre for a record 109 straight weeks since mid-September 2022 – over two years. Average retail petrol prices hit a low of $1.73 per litre in late September and again in mid-October.

Looking longer-term, average retail petrol prices have now averaged $1.91 per litre since late January.

The persistently high petrol prices are clearly a key factor putting upward pressure on Inflation Expectations. The latest official ABS Quarterly annual CPI figure at 3.8% for the June quarter 2024, was an increase from the quarterly low reached earlier this year of 3.4% for the March quarter 2024.

The official inflation figure of 3.8% for the 12 months to June quarter 2024 remains clearly above the Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle and has led to continued discussion of potential further RBA interest rate increases that may be undertaken over the remainder of the year.

The next ABS Monthly and Quarterly CPI figure for September 2024 is due out this week (October 30).

Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2024

Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.

Inflation Expectations are highest in Victoria, lowest in South Australia

A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows sharp decreases in the three States of New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia – a second straight month of decreases in all three States, an unchanged result in Western Australia for a third straight month, but, going against the trend, increases in Tasmania and Victoria.

Inflation Expectations decreased for a second straight month in New South Wales, down 0.4% points to 4.6%, for a second straight month in Queensland, down 0.6% points to 4.8%, and for a second straight month in South Australia, down 0.5% points to 4.5%. South Australia now has the lowest Inflation Expectations of any mainland State for the first time since May 2024.

In contrast, Inflation Expectations increased by 0.2% points to 5.0% in Victoria and are now higher than any other State for the first time in nearly six years. There was also an increase in Tasmania, up 0.5% points to 4.8%, and were unchanged at 4.7% in Western Australia for a third straight month.

Inflation Expectations in Country Areas dropped 0.4% points to 4.8%, and are now just above the national average, while Inflation Expectations in Capital Cities dropped 0.2% points to 4.7%.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says weekly Inflation Expectations were at 4.6% in late October, down 0.1% points from the monthly figure of 4.7% for September, as average retail petrol prices declined in September but have still spent a record 109 weeks, over a year, above $1.70 per litre:

Block Quote

“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia declined in October and are now at 4.6%, down 0.1% points from the month of September (4.7%). Inflation Expectations for the month of September had decreased 0.1% points from the month of August (5.0%).

“Average retail petrol prices were at $1.95 per litre in late July and have since dropped significantly, down by over 15 cents a litre to an average of $1.79 per litre throughout September, and this decline has continued in recent weeks to under $1.75 per litre in mid-October.

“The decline in average petrol prices of around 20 cents per litre since late July has mirrored a drop in Inflation Expectations during this period, which dropped in August and have continued to decline in September and October to their lowest levels in over three years.

“However, over the longer-term petrol prices have been above $1.70 per litre for 109 straight weeks since mid-September 2022 – over two full years above this mark. In addition, so far this year average weekly petrol prices have averaged over $1.90 per litre.

“Looking forward, the ABS is set to release the September 2024 quarterly and monthly CPI figures later this week. The ABS figures will be keenly watched to see if the monthly figure continues to decline (2.7% for August, down 0.8% points from July and down 1.1% points since June), remains unchanged or even increases – and the same applies for the crucial quarterly figure being released..

“The latest results from the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations suggest the upward pressures on inflation were short-lived during July and have subsided in the subsequent months of August, September and October as energy costs have fallen.

“The volatility in energy prices, and Inflation Expectations, shows how sensitive Australians are to changes in the prices of essential everyday goods – like petrol.”

See below for a comprehensive list of RBA interest rate changes during the time-period charted above.

The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade from October 2014 – September 2024 and includes interviews with 6,031 Australians aged 14+ in September 2024.

For comments and information about Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations data, please contact:

Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

The questions used to calculate the Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index.

1) Prices: “During the next 2 years, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?”

2a) If stay where they are now: “Do you mean that prices will go up at the same rate as now or that prices in general will not go up during the next 2 years?

2b) If go up or go down: “By about what per cent per year do you expect prices to (go up/ go down) on average during the next 2 years?”

3) “Would that be (x%) per year, or is that the total for prices over the next 2 years?”

The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is a forward-looking indicator unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and is based on continuous (weekly) measurement, and monthly reporting. The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is current and relevant.

Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index (2010 – 2024)
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYearly Average
2010n/an/an/a5.95.85.55.65.45.55.85.65.85.7
20116.66.46.46.26.16.26.15.85.75.85.55.56.0
20125.45.55.95.96.06.25.95.95.85.75.65.45.8
20135.25.15.34.95.24.95.35.04.84.94.85.05.0
20145.15.25.25.15.15.35.04.85.04.84.94.45.0
20154.44.34.54.54.24.44.44.54.54.24.44.54.5
20164.34.24.24.24.04.04.13.94.14.13.94.24.1
20174.54.44.44.44.34.24.34.54.44.54.54.54.4
20184.54.44.34.54.34.54.34.34.34.54.34.24.4
20194.24.04.03.74.13.84.13.94.04.13.94.04.0
20203.94.04.03.63.33.23.43.23.33.53.43.63.5
20213.63.73.83.73.74.04.14.34.54.84.94.84.2
20224.95.15.85.55.35.75.95.65.45.66.56.05.6
20235.35.35.65.35.25.65.65.45.25.35.45.35.4
20245.15.04.95.24.94.95.15.04.7   5.0
Monthly
Average
4.84.84.94.84.84.84.94.84.74.84.84.84.8
Overall: Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Average: 4.8

The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Report – Including Inflation Expectations

To learn more about the trends for Inflation Expectations as well as Consumer Confidence for different segments and demographics throughout the Australian community, purchase the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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