Preference flows are vital in a Federal Election with support for minor parties and independents over 32%
Preference flows are the ‘sleeper issue’ in this Federal Election with around a third of Australians set to vote for minor parties or independents according to the latest Roy Morgan survey.
The latest Roy Morgan survey shows primary support for the Coalition at 34.5% just ahead of the ALP on 33% and a further 32.5% of Australians nominating minor parties or independents –up from the 2022 Federal Election when 31.7% of Australians voted for a minor party or independent. A record high of over 10% of MPs elected to the House of Representatives (16 MPs elected) were from minor parties (6 MPs) or were independents (10 MPs) at the last Federal Election.
The proportion of Australians voting for minor parties and independents has steadily increased since the 2007 Federal Election nearly 20 years ago – former Liberal Prime Minister John Howard’s final election.
Rise of support for Other Parties & Independents (2007-2025) at the expense of the major parties
| FEDERAL | 3 WAY SPLIT OF THE PRIMARY VOTE | |||
| ELECTIONS | L-NP | ALP | OTHERS | TOTAL |
| 2007 | 42.1% | 43.4% | 14.5% | 100% |
| 2010 | 43.3% | 38.0% | 18.7% | 100% |
| 2013 | 45.6% | 33.4% | 21.0% | 100% |
| 2016 | 42.0% | 34.7% | 23.3% | 100% |
| 2019 | 41.4% | 33.3% | 25.3% | 100% |
| 2022 | 35.7% | 32.6% | 31.7% | 100% |
| 2025* | 34.5% | 34.0% | 31.5% | 100% |
* Roy Morgan survey conducted from April 28 - May 2, 2025. A representative cross-section of 1,368 Australian electors were interviewed.
Support for minor parties and independents has more than doubled since 2007 when both major parties scored more than 40% of the vote – the last time this happened – and only 14.5% of Australians voted for minor parties and independents.
Since the 2007 Federal Election support for minor parties and independents has increased at every subsequent election: +4.2% to 18.7% (2010 Federal Election), +2.3% to 21% (2013), +2.3% to 23.3% (2016), +2% to 25.3% (2019) and +6.4% to a record high of 31.7% (2022).
The two most significant non-major parties are the Greens, who now have 13.5% support, and have a heavy preference flow to Labor (85.7% at the last Federal Election), and One Nation, who now have 6.5% support and a heavy preference flow to the Liberal-National Coalition (64.3% at the last Federal Election).
One Nation’s record support was back at the 1998 Federal Election when they received 8.4% support, and if the trend of rising support for the party over the last few weeks continues, the Roy Morgan Poll shows they will receive a higher level of support (6.5%) than the last Federal Election in 2022 (5% support).
Although these are strong preference flows for both the Greens and One Nation, they could strengthen, or weaken, at this year’s Federal Election and this will have a significant impact on many key seats.
In addition, a further 12.5% of Australians are planning to vote for either an independent candidate – such as the ‘Teal Independents’, or other minor parties with smaller levels of support.
The preference flows of ‘Teal Independents’ favour the ALP, however the preference flows of other minor parties such as Clive Palmer’s ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ or the re-branded ‘Libertarians’ (formerly the Liberal Democratic Party), are heavily in favour of the Liberal-National Coalition – introducing even more uncertainty into where people’s preferences will ultimately end up in each seat.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The weekly Roy Morgan survey has shown for months that around a third of Australians (32.5% of electors) are set to vote for a minor party or independent at this week’s Federal Election – perhaps even exceeding the current record high of 31.7% at the 2022 Federal Election.
“Support for minor parties and independents has increased at each of the last five Federal Elections in 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019 and 2022 – and there’s no sign this trend has yet ended.
“At each of the last two Federal Elections, in 2019 and 2022, primary support for both major parties have fallen, while support for parties such as the Greens, One Nation, or even community ‘Teal Independents’ – has increased.
“Typically, nearly a quarter of people, 22%, say they make up their mind in the polling booth – and the high level of support for minor parties and independents in Australia means it’s harder than ever before to determine just where these preference flows of these voters will go – and crucially, it’s now more important than ever before as well.
“There’s also a new factor at play. As political parties become more sophisticated and determined to find every vote possible, ‘vote harvesting’ and ‘persuasion at the polling booth’ – which is when political parties and their volunteers ‘assist’ people to cast their vote and make up their minds – are set to have an outsized impact on a Federal Election with over a third of Australians planning to vote for minor parties and independents.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,368 Australian electors from April 28 – May 2, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 0.5%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result produced is more in favour of the ALP on 54% (unchanged) leading the Coalition on 46% (unchanged).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
