ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased to 5.1% in late April – up from 4.7% for the month of March
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 5.1% for the week of April 21-27, 2025, up 0.4% points from the month of March, following two straight weekly increases in late April.
A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for March 2025 shows the measure at 4.7% for the month – an increase of 0.1% points from the nearly four-year low in February of only 4.6%.
Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% - 5.3% since the start of 2024 and averaged 4.9%. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.
Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – March 2025).
Average retail petrol prices dropped back to $1.83 per litre in March; equalling their level in January
During March, average retail petrol prices started the month at $1.85 per litre and decreased throughout the month to end the month at $1.79 per litre and an average retail petrol price throughout the month of $1.83 per litre. After March ended, average retail petrol prices have remained low and have now spent five straight weeks below $1.80 per litre – the longest stretch at such a low level since October 2024.
Although average retail petrol prices have lowered in March and throughout April, weekly inflation expectations have increased marginally in March and continued to increase in April indicating there are other inflationary pressures at play such as those related to President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.
Looking longer-term, average retail petrol prices have now been above $1.70 per litre for a record 136 straight weeks since mid-September 2022 – well over two years. Average retail petrol prices hit a low of $1.73 per litre in late September 2024, again in mid-October, and for a third time in late November 2024.
Looking back average retail petrol prices have now averaged $1.87 per litre since early March 2024, but this has dropped to an average of $1.81 per litre since early August 2024 over the last eight months.
The persistently high petrol prices are clearly a key factor putting upward pressure on Inflation Expectations, which, although they dropped in February have since increased during recent weeks in both March and April.
Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2025
Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.
In better news, the latest official ABS Monthly annual CPI estimate at 2.4% for the year to February 2025 is directly within the Reserve Bank’s preferred target range of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle. Official estimates of inflation have now been within the preferred target range for seven months since August 2024.
The drop in official estimates of inflation led to the first cut in official interest rates for over four years since the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic by the RBA in mid-February by +0.25% to 4.1%.
The next ABS Monthly CPI estimate for March 2025 is due to be released on Wednesday this week.
Inflation Expectations are again highest in Queensland and now lowest in Tasmania
A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows mixed results with increases in two States, unchanged results in two other States, and declines in two other States.
The largest increase was in Queensland, up 0.4% points to 5.2%, and again the highest Inflation Expectations of any State. There was also an increase in Victoria, up 0.2% points to 4.8%.
Inflation Expectations were unchanged, and in line with the national average, in New South Wales at 4.7% and unchanged at 4.3% in South Australia. There declines for two straight months in Western Australia, down 0.4% points to 4.3%, and in Tasmania, down 0.5% points to 4% and now the lowest of any State.
Inflation Expectations in Country Areas increased by 0.3% points to 5.1% in March but were unchanged at 4.5% in Capital Cities – the equal lowest Inflation Expectations in Capital Cities for well over three years since September 2021.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says weekly Inflation Expectations were at 5.1% in late April, up 0.4% points from the monthly estimate of 4.7% for March, indicating that inflationary pressures remain persistent in the economy despite the fall in the official inflation estimate:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia increased in April and are now at 5.1%, up 0.4% points from the month of March (4.7%). This is a second straight monthly increase in Inflation Expectations following a 0.1% point increase in March.
“Despite the recent increases in Inflation Expectations, the official estimates of inflation have shown sustained reductions compared to peak in inflation reached in late 2022. The latest ABS monthly inflation estimate for the year to February 2025 shows inflation at 2.4% – at the mid-point of the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle.
“Looking forward, the ABS is set to release the March 2025 monthly and quarterly CPI estimates later this week. The estimates will be keenly watched to see if the estimates continue at their low rate and within the Reserve Bank’s target range – both for headline and core inflation.
“The sharp reduction in inflationary pressures in the broader economy over the last year during which official annual inflation fell from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024 – a fall of 1.7% points – led to the Reserve Bank cutting official interest rates by 0.25% to 4.1% in mid-February 2025.
“The March quarterly and monthly CPI estimates will be the key factor for the Reserve Bank as it decides whether to cut interest rates again at its next meeting due in mid-May, in three weeks.
“The latest results from the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations show the decline in expectations during February was not sustained and the indicator has increased significantly during both March and April adding to concerns that inflationary pressures in the economy are ongoing.
“The volatility in energy prices, and Inflation Expectations, shows how sensitive Australians are to changes in the prices of essential everyday goods – like petrol.”
See below for a comprehensive list of RBA interest rate changes during the time-period charted above.
The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade from April 2015 – March 2025 and includes interviews with 6,093 Australians aged 14+ in March 2025.
For comments and information about Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations data, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
