Distrust puts the brakes on Australia’s economic progress
A special webinar with Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine and Nine Network’s National Finance Editor Chris Kohler looks at the 2026 Fiscal Year ahead – which has just begun – and what to expect for an Australian economy facing many challenges while mired in an environment of widespread ‘distrust’.
Roy Morgan data confirms that Australia has become a fragile nation: distrust in the entire economy is rising, confidence is low, and the social fabric of our nation is experiencing unfamiliar, and sustained, stress.
COVID-19 pandemic plunged Australia into deep net distrust of the economy – where it remains
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Australians trusted the economy more than they distrusted it – see the black net-trust line in the chart below, which is trust minus distrust.
The pandemic marked a tipping point, plunging Net Trust deep into Net Distrust territory.
Two key insights emerge:
- COVID exposed and amplified existing weaknesses in institutional trust, permanently altering how Australians judge institutions, brands and leaders;
- A distrusting public becomes inherently risk-averse – spending less, saving more and doubting every institution – effectively stalling economic momentum.
Overall Trust & Distrust in the Australian Economy (2018-2025)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Risk Monitor, 12- month average to April 2025.
Base: Australians 14+, Latest 12 months average n=23,150.
Australian Consumer Confidence has been stuck well below 100 for over three years
The key indicator of consumer sentiment – ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence – has now been languishing well below the neutral 100 mark for over three straight years – that’s the longest and deepest stretch we’ve experienced this century.
Each modest uptick feels tentative, only to be followed by a sharper decline, and in May we were still stuck below 90 – at only 87.9. That’s a worrying sign. Consumer Confidence has not been in positive territory above 100 since March 2022.
Low confidence isn’t just a mood swing; it feeds a self-reinforcing cycle in which households pull back on discretionary spending, businesses delay new investments or hiring, and government revenues come under pressure.
What’s driving that negative loop isn’t simply economics – it’s emotional. Distrust acts like a hidden brake, turning a willing consumer into a risk-averse saver.
Even as inflation eases as we’ve seen over the last year and interest rates fall, Australians remain wary of the very institutions they rely on – banks, governments, retailers – and so the brakes on recovery aren’t released. While that continues, the broader economy will struggle to regain real momentum.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence: 2000-2025
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). January 2000 – May 2025. Monthly average, n=4,000.
Base: Australians aged 14+.
Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan: “So Chris, despite low Consumer Confidence, interest rates are falling, retail spending’s improving, business confidence is growing, inflation appears to be under control, so what’s it going to take to get the economy firing again?”
Chris Kohler, Nine Network’s National Finance Editor: “They’re all really nice things aren’t they – business confidence, consumer confidence, I think to really let all those factors you mention soak in to all of the different parts of the economy you just have to wait a little while.
“There’ll be more rate cuts. Absolutely. They’ll have to keep coming down, and most economists think we can expect further interest rate cuts. Unemployment is still low so that job security is in people’s minds and they’re feeling pretty good about that. In another few months, or maybe towards Christmas, you might start to see that general sense of wellbeing improve.”
Surge of Buy-Now-Pay-Later usage in Australia brings new credit risks
The latest Roy Morgan data in the year to March 2025 shows the percentage of adults using Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) digital payment services has climbed almost 10 percent over the last year, and a look at recent spending on BNPL (use in just the last four weeks) shows an even larger increase.
In other words, one in four Australians (24.5%) now rely on BNPL at least once a year and that proportion is growing even faster for recent spending with almost one-in-six (15.9%) now using BNPL monthly.
While it can feel like a convenient short-term fix, rising BNPL adoption often masks deeper financial stress: users can sometimes carry multiple outstanding BNPL balances with different providers, have higher overall unsecured debt, and these factors cut into the savings just to make the next instalment payment.
As these BNPL services expand into essential purchases – from groceries to utilities – this spike in personal debt threatens both household resilience and broader consumer demand. It’s another canary in the coal mine for financial fragility, and one more indicator that, despite signs of economic recovery, many Australians remain one payday, or unexpected bill, away from real hardship.
Chris Kohler, Nine Network’s National Finance Editor: “Consumer debt products have just become so available, you can be approved instantaneously… One of the problems I think about Buy-Now-Pay-Later that doesn’t get talked about that much is the merchant fees on businesses – they’re about 4% – which is significantly higher than it is for a credit card or debit card purchase – so the businesses are forking out here too.
“So the expansion and growth in BNPL is costing money to the economy in a few different ways… These small businesses are having to swallow (this cost) and pass it on. The BNPL services don’t really want the businesses to pass these costs on though. “
Total Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) usage – March 2024 vs. March 2025
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). 12-month average to March 2025.
Base: Australians aged 14+, 12m to March 2024 cf. 12 months to March 2025.
For the full analysis and views of Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine and Nine Network National Finance Editor Chris Kohler on the new fiscal year view Roy Morgan’s Fiscal Year 2026 Insights Webinar here.
The webinar delves into the forces impacting the Australian economy and corporate Australia and what factors are driving consumer choices and spending decisions in an economy beset with widespread distrust as well as continuing cost of living pressures and low confidence.
For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years of experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
