September 16, 2021

57% of Australians approve of the Federal Government’s agreement to purchase nuclear submarines from the USA

Topic: Federal Poll, Press Release
Finding No: 8797
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A majority of 57% of Australians approve of the Federal Government’s agreement to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the United States, 43% disapprove according to a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey conducted today, Thursday September 16, 2021.

There are large differences based on voting intention on this question with 89% of L-NP supporters approving of the agreement to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the United States compared to 47% of ALP supporters and only 14% of Greens supporters. Supporters of One Nation (79%) and the United Australia Party (71%) are also clearly in approval of the agreement.

There is also a clear gender gap with over two-thirds of men (68%) approving of the agreement to buy nuclear-powered submarines compared to only 46% of women.

There is also a clear ‘age gap’ on views of the agreement. There is strong approval for the agreement to buy nuclear-powered submarines among people aged 50-64 (60%) and those aged 65+ (72%).

In contrast people aged 35-49 are evenly split (50% 50%) on the agreement and a small majority of younger people, (53% aged 18-24, and 51% aged 25-34) disapprove of the agreement.

Analysis by States shows there is clear majority approval across all States led by South Australia (61%). South Australia is set to be the location of where the submarines will be built. Just behind are Queensland (60%), Tasmania (60%), Western Australia (56%), New South Wales (55%) and Victoria (55%).

Michele Levine CEO Roy Morgan, says the Federal Government’s announcement today that Australia will be buying nuclear-powered submarines from the United States has won the approval of a clear majority of 57% of Australians in a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey:

“Australians woke up this morning to a special three-way joint press conference between Prime Minister Scott Morrison, US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to announce Australia had made an agreement to purchase nuclear-powered submarines from the United States.

“The announcement has created a clear political divide with the vast majority of L-NP supporters (89%) approving of the agreement. There is also strong support from One Nation supporters (79%) and supporters of the United Australia Party (71%).

“However, the issue does create a clear split amongst ALP supporters with a slim majority of 53% disapproving of the agreement compared to 47% approving. The almost 50:50 split amongst ALP supporters provides the Government with a potential ‘wedge’ issue to divide ALP supporters on national security grounds in the upcoming Federal Election. ALP Leader Anthony Albanese will have to be very careful with how he explains the ALP’s position on the agreement.

“In contrast, Greens supporters are almost uniformly opposed to the agreement with 86% of Greens supporters disapproving and only 14% approving. Greens Leader Adam Bandt has already made their position clear today by asserting that ‘this dangerous nuclear submarines move puts floating Chernobyls in the heart of Australian cities

“As well as the political split there are also clear divides based on gender and age. Over two-thirds of men (68%) approve of the agreement compared to only 46% of women. And while there is strong support amongst Australians aged 50-64 (60%) and 65+ (72%), in contrast among Australians aged under 35 a slim majority disapprove.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email 
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Australians surveyed were each asked the following question:

●        Question 1: “Today the Federal Government announced an agreement to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the United States, do you approve or disapprove?” Approve 57%cf. Disapprove 43%.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,714 Australians aged 18+ on Thursday September 16, 2021.

Today the Federal Government announced an agreement to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the United States, do you approve or disapprove? By Gender & Age

Australians
18+
GenderAge
MenWomen18-2425-3435-4950-6465+
%%%%%%%%
Approve5768464749506072
Disapprove4332545351504028
TOTAL100100100100100100100100

Today the Federal Government announced an agreement to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the United States, do you approve or disapprove? By States & City/Country

AreasStates
Australians
18+
Capital
Cities
Country
Regions
NSWVICQLDWASATAS
%%%%%%%%%
Approve575657555560566160
Disapprove434443454540443940
TOTAL100100100100100100100100100

Today the Federal Government announced an agreement to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the United States, do you approve or disapprove? By Party Vote

ElectorsParty Vote
L-NPALPGreensOne NationUnited Australia Party (UAP)Ind/Others
%%%%%%%
Approve56894714797162
Disapprove44115386212938
TOTAL100100100100100100100

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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