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2019: Indonesia’s record year of Consumer Confidence

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,292 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in December throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence averaged a record high of 159.9 in calendar year 2019, beating the previous record of 158.1 set the year before. December saw a small Consumer Confidence drop of 3pts to 158.7, almost precisely where it was 12 months earlier, in December 2018 (158.8).

On a regional level, Consumer Confidence improved year on year on the central island of Java while there have been declines in other parts of the archipelago.

The biggest increase compared to a year ago has been in the provinces of Central Java & Yogyakarta, with Consumer Confidence up 6.6pts to 162.8 and now significantly above the national average of 158.7. There was also an increase of 2.1pts to 167.1 for the provinces of East Java & Bali, and by 1pt to 156.1 for the area around Jakarta and the provinces of West Java & Banten.

While they have each had declines compared to a year ago, the two most confident regions at the end of 2019 were once again the island of Sulawesi, with Consumer Confidence of 173.2 (down 3.2pts), and the provinces of Southern Sumatra on 158.6 (down 8.7pts).

“Indonesian Consumer Confidence declined by 3pts to 158.7 in December on a month by month basis, but despite the drop, 2019 ended with a record high average of 159.9 in the year that saw the re-election of President Joko Widodo to a second term,” said Ira Soekirman, Director of Roy Morgan Indonesia.

“The regions that performed well to end 2019 are those centrally located on Indonesia’s largest island of Java. Consumer Confidence is higher than a year ago throughout Java, while there have been declines elsewhere. Java is the industrial heart of Indonesia, and if it were a country in its own right its population of over 140 million people would make it the world’s 10th largest, roughly similar in population to Russia. The improving confidence in Java bodes well for the performance of the Indonesian economy in 2020,” said Ms. Soekirman.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Island & Region: December 2018 cf. December 2019

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ Dec. 2018 (n=1,284) & Dec. 2019 (n=1,292).

Long-term Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence: 2009-2019


Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ December 2019 (n=1,292).

Monthly fall in confidence in December driven by rising concern about the Indonesian economy

Analysis of the latest consumer confidence compared to a month ago shows the monthly decrease is driven by declining confidence about the performance of the Indonesian economy going forward, largely reversing the gains made in November.

In December, 89% (down 3ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and 10% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

Looking at the longer term, 92% (up 3ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 8% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

Now 42% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and only 10% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

A decreasing majority of 69% (down 3ppts) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year and a low 5% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

In good news for Indonesian retailers a record high 66% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 32% (down 1ppt) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Comparing Indonesian Consumer Confidence with the longer-term, the current rating is a significant 21pts above the long-run average (2005-2019) of 137.7.

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,292 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in December throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia January 25/26, 2020 – 108.0) and New Zealand (January 2020 – 122.7); long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.



For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400


Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0



About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2