ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 0.6pts to 122.1 in February
Consumer confidence eased 1 point in February to 122. This is a solid start to the year, following gains made at the end of 2019.
- The proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item fell back to 41%, still a strong level.
- Consumers are feeling good for now, but emerging global risks could weigh in coming months due to the worrying COVID-19 outbreak.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell just a smidgen in February, and is still solid. Households are feeling pretty good about life.
Turning to the detail:
- Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation rose 3 points. A net 14% feel financially better off than a year ago.
- A net 32% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, up 2 points.
- A net 41% think it’s a good time to buy a major household item, down 8, but still strong. The bullish housing market will be supporting this result.
- Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 7 points to a net 3% expecting conditions to improve, the weakest since October. This series is most correlated with business confidence. The five-year outlook rose 7 points to +20%.
- Confidence rose in three of the five regions, but Wellington suffered a dramatic fall from grace, going from strongest to weakest (down 15).
- House price inflation expectations lifted in every region, but the regions remain stronger than the main centres. The national average rose 0.9%pts to 5.3% y/y, the strongest since late 2016. Inflation expectations rose 0.1%pts to 3.8%.
New Zealand consumers are feeling pretty happy with their lot at the moment – the lifting housing market is making homeowners feel richer, job opportunities are relatively plentiful, and interest rates are low. Expectations of good times continuing will support spending today. But as our Business Outlook survey yesterday showed, businesses are becoming more worried about the outlook. For our part, we have been revising down our growth forecasts markedly in response to the global COVID-19 outbreak.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
