L-NP (51.5%) now ahead of ALP (48.5%) and Government Confidence soars 34pts in April as Australia faces COVID-19
Support for the L-NP has surged to 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis in April according to telephone and online interviewing conducted over the weekends of April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 with a representative cross-section of 2,806 Australian electors.
L-NP support is up 4.5% points from mid-March and is now at its highest since the honeymoon period following Scott Morrison’s unexpected Federal Election victory in May last year.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence soars 34pts to 124
In addition the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has surged to a record high for an L-NP Government of 124 in April, up a stunning 34pts since mid-March.
Now a majority of 51.5% of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, up 14.5% points since mid-March while only 27.5% (down 19.5%) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Primary Voting Intention
Primary support for the L-NP increased an impressive 7% to 43.5% in April and is now well ahead of the ALP on 33% (down 3%).
Greens support is up 0.5% to 11.5% while support for One Nation is at 3% (down 1%). Support for Independents/Others is down 3.5% to 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says:
“Support for the L-NP Government has increased substantially in April as thus far Australia has successfully dealt with the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic. The jump in L-NP support comes after Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the L-NP Government faced months of criticism earlier this year for their handling of the summer bushfires crisis. The L-NP (51.5%) now leads the ALP (48.5%) on a two-party preferred basis for the first time this year.
“A key indicator of the Government’s improved support is the soaring Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating which has increased a stunning 34pts to 124. This is the highest rating since February 2011 during the height of the Mining Boom under Prime Minister Julia Gillard.
“A majority of 51.5% of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – up 14.5% points since mid-March and the first time a majority of Australians have agreed with this since the L-NP Government was first elected in September 2013 more than six years ago.
“Government Confidence among L-NP voters has jumped 31pts to 157.5 and the biggest increases have been in Country Areas (+38.5pts), Victoria (+40.5pts), New South Wales (+35pts) and South Australia (+35pts). Women’s Government Confidence has jumped past men, up 45pts to 127.5, while for men Government Confidence improved 21pts to 119.5.
“During times of crisis Roy Morgan has frequently observed support for the Government increases as voters ‘rally around the flag’. This has played out during times conflict, terrorism, and also financial and economic upheaval in the past.
“However, there was an exception to this trend earlier this year when support for the L-NP Government dropped significantly during the bushfires as Australians felt Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his government bungled their handling of the crisis. L-NP two-party preferred support dropped to only 45% in early February and Roy Morgan Government Confidence hit a record low of only 80 in late January.
“The recovery in both indicators over the past month has been spectacular but perhaps not surprising when one considers the undoubted success of the National Cabinet comprising Federal, State and Territory Leaders in halting the spread of COVID-19 in a matter of weeks without widespread fatalities from the deadly virus.”
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
Australian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”.
| Electors | Right Direction | Wrong Direction | Government Confidence Rating | Can’t say | Total |
| % | % | GCR | % | % | |
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 37 | 47 | 90 | 16 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 51.5 | 27.5 | 124 | 21 | 100 |
| Change | +14.5 | -19.5 | +34pts | +5 |
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Federal Voting Intention
| Voting Intention | Right Direction | Wrong Direction | Government Confidence Rating | Can’t say | Total |
| % | % | GCR | % | % | |
| L-NP | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 55 | 28.5 | 126.5 | 16.5 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 71 | 13.5 | 157.5 | 15.5 | 100 |
| Change | +16 | -15 | +31pts | -1 | |
| ALP | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 31.5 | 53.5 | 78 | 15 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 43.5 | 35 | 108.5 | 21.5 | 100 |
| Change | +12 | -18.5 | +30.5pts | +6.5 | |
| Greens | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 23.5 | 64 | 59.5 | 12.5 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 29.5 | 46.5 | 83 | 24 | 100 |
| Change | +6 | -17.5 | +28pts | +11.5 | |
| Independents/Others | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 23 | 62 | 61 | 15 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 29 | 43 | 86 | 28 | 100 |
| Change | +6 | -19 | +25pts | +13 | |
| Can’t say* | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 28 | 50.5 | 77.5 | 21.5 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 41 | 24 | 117 | 35 | 100 |
| Change | +13 | -26.5 | +39.5pts | +13.5 |
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,806 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020. A higher than usual 6% of electors can’t say who they support.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Region
| Region | Right Direction | Wrong Direction | Government Confidence Rating | Can’t say | Total |
| % | % | GCR | % | % | |
| Capital Cities | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 38.5 | 43.5 | 95 | 18 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 52 | 26.5 | 125.5 | 21.5 | 100 |
| Change | +13.5 | -17 | +30.5pts | +3.5 | |
| Country Areas | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 34.5 | 53 | 81.5 | 12.5 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 50 | 30 | 120 | 20 | 100 |
| Change | +15.5 | -23 | +38.5pts | +7.5 |
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by State
| State | Right Direction | Wrong Direction | Government Confidence Rating | Can’t say | Total |
| % | % | GCR | % | % | |
| NSW | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 36 | 46.5 | 89.5 | 17.5 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 51.5 | 27 | 124.5 | 21.5 | 100 |
| Change | +15.5 | -19.5 | +35pts | +4 | |
| Victoria | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 35.5 | 48.5 | 87 | 16 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 54 | 26.5 | 127.5 | 19.5 | 100 |
| Change | +18.5 | -22 | +40.5pts | +3.5 | |
| Queensland | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 40 | 42.5 | 97.5 | 17.5 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 52.5 | 26.5 | 126 | 21 | 100 |
| Change | +12.5 | -16 | +28.5pts | +3.5 | |
| WA | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 47 | 43 | 104 | 10 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 51 | 28 | 123 | 21 | 100 |
| Change | +4 | -15 | +19pts | +11 | |
| SA | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 30 | 53 | 77 | 17 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 45 | 33 | 112 | 22 | 100 |
| Change | +15 | -20 | +35pts | +5 | |
| Tasmania | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 40 | 50.5 | 89.5 | 9.5 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 41.5 | 32.5 | 109 | 26 | 100 |
| Change | +1.5 | -18 | +19.5pts | +16.5 |
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Gender
| Gender | Right Direction | Wrong Direction | Government Confidence Rating | Can’t say | Total |
| % | % | GCR | % | % | |
| Women | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 32.5 | 50 | 82.5 | 17.5 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 51.5 | 24 | 127.5 | 24.5 | 100 |
| Change | +19 | -26 | +45pts | +7 | |
| Men | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 42 | 43.5 | 98.5 | 14.5 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 51 | 31.5 | 119.5 | 17.5 | 100 |
| Change | +9 | -12 | +21pts | +3 |
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Age
| Age | Right Direction | Wrong Direction | Government Confidence Rating | Can’t say | Total |
| % | % | GCR | % | % | |
| 18-34 | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 35 | 46 | 89 | 19 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 43.5 | 31.5 | 112 | 25 | 100 |
| Change | +8.5 | -14.5 | +23pts | +6 | |
| 35-49 | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 38.5 | 45.5 | 93 | 16 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 45 | 30 | 115 | 25 | 100 |
| Change | +6.5 | -15.5 | +22pts | +9 | |
| 50-64 | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 36 | 51 | 85 | 13 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 55.5 | 28.5 | 127 | 16 | 100 |
| Change | +19.5 | -22.5 | +42pts | +3 | |
| 65+ | |||||
| Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 39 | 45.5 | 93.5 | 15.5 | 100 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 63 | 19.5 | 143.5 | 17.5 | 100 |
| Change | +24 | -26 | +50pts | +2 |
For further information:
| Contact | Office | Mobile |
| Gary Morgan: | +61 3 9224 5213 | +61 411 129 094 |
| Michele Levine: | +61 3 9224 5215 | +61 411 129 093 |
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
