ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.1pts to 86.5 driven down by Consumer Confidence in Melbourne plunging 4.1pts to 81 in first week of Stage 4 lockdown

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 2.1pts to 86.5 on August 8/9, 2020 – and is at its lowest for well over three months since April 25/26, 2020 (85.0). Consumer Confidence dropped around the country and fell particularly hard in Melbourne after the city entered a restrictive Stage 4 lockdown last week, down 4.1pts to 81 - clearly the lowest of all the mainland Capital Cities. 

Consumer Confidence also dropped in Sydney, down 1pt to 85.1 and sharply in Adelaide, down 8.8pts to 85.2. Perth remains the most confident city, but Consumer Confidence dropped by 5.5pts to 94.9 in the Western Australian capital. Overall Consumer Confidence is now 29pts lower than a year ago on the comparable weekend of August 10/11, 2019 (115.5) and 7.6pts below the 2020 weekly average of 94.1.

Driving the fall this week were declines in confidence about the Australian economy over the next year and that now is a good time to buy major household items.

Current financial conditions

• Now 26% (up 3ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and 35% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

• In addition, 32% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 22% (unchanged) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Current economic conditions

• Now just 5% (down 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 18/19) while an increasing majority of 55% (up 3ppts), expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since April 11/12, 2020).

Future financial conditions

• In the longer term, only 16% (up 1ppt) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years compared to 23% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

• A decreasing number of Australians, 31% (down 2ppts), say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 42% (up 6ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator for over three months since May 2/3, 2020).

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

"The move to Stage 4 restrictions in Melbourne put further downward pressure on sentiment last week, with confidence falling to its lowest level since the last weekend of April. Not surprisingly, confidence is weakest in Melbourne. The resilience of sentiment toward financial conditions continues to be a feature of the survey, but only in a relative sense as it is still low in absolute terms and speaks to a likely reluctance on the part of households to spend."

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