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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged in September at 100.0

Consumer confidence was basically unchanged at 100.0 in September. It is well under its historical average of around 120, and around the 2009 average.

Consumer confidence was basically unchanged at 100.0 in September. It is well under its historical average of around 120, and around the 2009 average.

  • The net proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item improved 2 points but remains recessionary at -1%.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index was steady in September. The initial bounce out of lockdown has given way to wariness consistent with very subdued spending.

Turning to the detail:
  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation fell 3 points to -2, its third consecutive fall. The wage subsidy scheme has been key for supporting housing incomes but is starting to roll off.
  • A net 22% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, down another 5 points.
  • A net 1% thinks it is a bad time to buy a major household item, an improvement of 2 points. A negative read here is consistent with our view that the vigorous post-lockdown bounce in retail spending was not sustainable.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook lifted 7 points but remains very low at -35%. The five-year outlook fell 2 points to +15%.
  • Despite everything, house price inflation expectations lifted again, up 0.6%pts to 3.4%. They dipped slightly in Wellington but rose elsewhere. They remain weakest in Canterbury, and strongest in the North Island outside of Wellington and Auckland.
  • General inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.2%.

Households remain very concerned about their economic futures. While spending bounced back strongly after the March-April lockdown, it was aided by a fiscal tailwind that is too expensive to be sustained.

Willingness to buy a major household item is the best spending indicator in the survey. It remains at levels consistent with recession. And that makes sense. New Zealand’s aggregate income prospects have taken a significant hit with the loss of tourism revenue. The wage subsidy has muted the impact so far, but tourism is a big employer, and there are lots of worried people out there – not only in tourism but also in retail and hospitality, which are also exposed.


Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2