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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 8.7pts to 108.7 in October as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern cruises to easy re-election victory

Consumer confidence was up 8.7pts to 108.7 in October, with the current and future conditions indexes lifting by similar amounts. It remains under par – its historical average is around 120 – but it’s much improved.

Consumer confidence was up 8.7pts to 108.7 in October, with the current and future conditions indexes lifting by similar amounts. It remains under par – its historical average is around 120 – but it’s much improved.

  • The key retail spending indicator of the net proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item improved 12 points to +11% – that’s still a recessionary level.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index bounced in October. The profile is remarkably similar to business sentiment indicators: a sharp bounce, a wobble, then renewed improvement to still slightly under-par levels.

Turning to the detail:
  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation lifted 5 points to +3, breaking a run of three consecutive (small) falls.
  • A net 28% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, up 6 points in another welcome change of direction.
  • A net 11% think it is a good time to buy a major household item, an improvement of 12 points. That’s still consistent with tough times ahead for the retail sector.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook lifted 14 points to a still-wary -21%. The five-year outlook rose 7 points to +22%.
  • House price inflation expectations lifted again, up 1.2%pts to 4.6%. They rose in every region, and are strongest in Wellington (5.5%).
  • General inflation expectations rose 0.6%pts to 3.8%, the highest since February.

Households are increasingly confident that the housing boom has legs, but they remain wary about whether it is a good time to splash the cash.

Willingness to buy a major household item is the best retail spending indicator in the survey. It remains at levels suggesting heavily curtailed spending, despite the strong housing market. That’s not what we’ve seen so far in the high-frequency data, but it would be an entirely rational response to the economic uncertainty and income shock New Zealand is facing. Housing booms certainly create a vibe on the street, but they are not a win for everyone, and are a little nerve-wracking in an economy facing a large negative income hit.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2