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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for eleventh straight week, up 3.5pts to 106.6 – highest since late February

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,517 online and telephone interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend November 14/15, 2020.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 3.5pts to 106.6 on November 14/15, 2020 and is now 11.9pts above the 2020 weekly average of 94.7 and only 3.3pts lower than a year ago on the comparable weekend of November 16/17, 2019 (109.9).

Consumer Confidence has now increased for eleven straight weeks and is up 16.4pts since ending August at 90.2 and at its highest for nearly nine months since February 22/23, 2020 (108.3). Consumer Confidence increased strongly in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Country Areas in NSW, Victoria and Queensland. Driving this week’s increase is more confidence about personal financial situations and also more confidence about the performance of the Australian economy over the next year and next five years.

The recovery in Consumer Confidence over the last 2-3 months is due in large part to the tremendous amount of Government support for the economy during 2020, which is now well in excess of $100 billion through such programs as the JobKeeper wage subsidy, a six-month doubling of JobSeeker, and also allowing Australians to withdraw up to $10,000 from their superannuation in two separate tranches, which has provided a significant cushion for many Australians and led to large increases in retail spending in much of Australia.

The extensive financial support provided by the Government has severed the usual links between Consumer Confidence, Unemployment and Retail Spending. For instance, although there has been extensive financial support it has not allowed everyone to keep their jobs with unemployment and under-employment increasing by nearly 1.8 million in late March in only a few weeks and even in October there are still 3.15 million Australians now unemployed or under-employed (22.2% of the workforce) - up around 1 million on the pre-COVID-19 period in early March.

However, despite the high level of unemployment and under-employment over the last eight months, Retail spending in much of Australia has remained strong throughout 2020 - with increases of over 10% compared to this time a year ago in most States of Australia on a monthly basis. These large increases in Retail Spending while unemployment and under-employment have soared are a phenomenon unique to this year and due to the unprecedented Government support which is set to progressively wind down over the next six months.

The Government will be hoping that as important economic indicators such as ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence continue to increase further into positive territory the need for ongoing Government financial support will reduce to normal levels during 2021.


Current financial conditions

  • Now 27% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and just under a third, 32% (down 1ppt), say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.


Future financial conditions

  • In addition, 38% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 15% (down 2ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly nine months since February 2020).


Current economic conditions

  • Over one-in-eight Australians 14% (up 2ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months while 24% (down 5ppts), expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for well over a year since April 2019).


Future economic conditions

  • In the longer term, a quarter, 25% of Australians (up 3ppts) are expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years compared to 13% (down 3ppts) expecting ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for over a decade since October 2010).


Time to buy a major household item

  • In the lead-up to Christmas a plurality of Australians, 39% (down 2ppts), say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while only 26% (down 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.


ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

“This week’s 3.4% up-tick in confidence, coming on the back of the previous week’s 3.2% rise, is a pretty strong result – especially as it is the 11th gain in a row. The rise comes on the back of gains across the major sub-indices and takes overall confidence to its highest level since February. The news about the successful vaccine trial no doubt played a major role. The strong result points to a potentially strong Christmas season ahead for retailers. The outbreak of local transmission in South Australia reminds us that we aren’t in the clear just yet, but the trend in confidence is very encouraging.”


Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases


Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Australian Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)
ANZ-Roy Morgan 2020 Weekly Australian Consumer Confidence Results
ANZ-Roy Morgan Monthly Australian Consumer Confidence Results (1973-2020)
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)
ANZ-Roy Morgan Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Results (Headline Figures)


Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2