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New Zealand Labour/Greens support up to 58.5% - highest since the election

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ-wide cross-section of 937 electors during January. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed an unchanged 3% didn’t name a party.

The Labour/Greens government has increased its support to 58.5% of New Zealand electors in the first month of 2021, up 4% points since December. This is the highest level of support enjoyed by the new Labour /Greens alliance since agreeing to work together after the election. Support for the Labour Party has increased by 3% points to 47% in January.

Support for the main opposition National Party is down 3% points to 25%, while support for Act NZ is down slightly by 1% point to 9%. Support for the Maori Party is unchanged on 2%.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ-wide cross-section of 937 electors during January. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed an unchanged 3% didn’t name a party.

Lead for Labour/Greens (58.5%) stretches to over 20% ahead of National/Act NZ/Maori (36%)

In January 58.5% of electors supported the Labour/Greens governing partnership, up 4% points since December. The governing parties were well ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ/Maori Party on 36%, down 4% points since December.

A small minority of 5.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament.

  • Of the parties outside Parliament, The Opportunities Party (TOP) was down 0.5% points to 1.5% in January and New Zealand First was unchanged at 2%.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was down 0.5pts to 153 in January

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was down 0.5pts to 153 in January. The majority of 71.5% of New Zealand electors (unchanged since December) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 18.5% (up 0.5%) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says 2021 has got off to a good start for the Labour/Greens governing coalition with support increasing for the first time since October’s election:

“Support for the Labour/Greens governing coalition has increased 4% points to 58.5% in January driven by an increase in Labour’s support, up 3% points to 47%, and a slight increase in Greens support, up 1% point to 11.5%.

“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Government continues to ride high with New Zealand Government Confidence still at an elevated level of 153 in January with an unchanged 71.5% of electors saying New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.

“In addition, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence Rating of 113.8 is the highest for the indicator for a year since February 2020 as increasing numbers of New Zealanders expect to be ‘better off financially’ this time next year – up 3% points to 43% in January.

“New Zealand has assumed the hosting duties for APEC – Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in 2021 and the theme adopted is ‘Join. Work. Grow. Together.’ Prime Minister Ardern announced in the APEC welcome video that ‘APEC2021 New Zealand' will be the start of re-igniting growth, continuing trade, and setting a plan for long-lasting recovery across the entire region.’

“Although the country will not be hosting an in-person leaders’ summit there are several virtual meetings between Asia-Pacific leaders scheduled for 2021. New Zealand’s deft handling of COVID-19 gives the country credibility in the discussions about rebuilding economies that suffered a significant economic contraction last year.

“If New Zealand’s handling of the recovery from COVID-19 is as assured as the way it dealt with the health and economic threat of the virus in the first place the country can look forward to a prosperous few years as economic growth rebounds and strengthens.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – January 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – January 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – January 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

PARTY VOTE

Labour

Green Party*

National

ACT NZ

Maori Party**

TOP**

NZ First

Other

ELECTIONS

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

October 12, 1996*

28.19

10.10

33.87

6.10

n/a

n/a

13.35

8.39

November 27, 1999

38.74

5.16

30.50

7.04

n/a

n/a

4.26

14.30

July 27, 2002

41.26

7.00

20.93

7.14

n/a

n/a

10.38

13.29

September 17, 2005

41.10

5.30

39.10

1.51

2.12

n/a

5.72

5.15

November 8, 2008

33.99

6.72

44.93

3.65

2.39

n/a

4.07

4.25

November 26, 2011

27.48

11.06

47.31

1.07

1.43

n/a

6.59

5.06

September 20, 2014  

25.13

10.70

47.04

0.69

1.32

n/a

8.66

6.46

September 23, 2017

36.89

6.27

44.45

0.50

1.18

2.44

7.20

1.07

October 17, 2020

50.01

7.86

25.58

7.59

1.17

1.51

2.60

3.70

ROY MORGAN POLL

March 2020

42.5

11.5

37

3.5

0.5

1

3

1

April 2020

55

7

30.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

2.5

0.5

May 2020

56.5

7

26.5

3.5

1.5

1

2.5

1.5

June 2020

54.5

9

27

5

1

1.5

1.5

0.5

July 2020

53.5

8

26.5

6.5

0.5

1.5

1.5

2

August 2020

48

11.5

28.5

6

0.5

1

2.5

2

September 2020

47.5

9.5

28.5

7

0.5

1.5

2.5

3

NZ Election 2020

50

7.9

25.6

7.6

1.2

1.5

2.6

3.7

November 2020

44

12.5

25.5

10.5

1

2

1.5

3

December 2020

44

10.5

28

10

2

2

2

1.5

January 2021

47

11.5

25

9

2

1.5

2

2

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties. **The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National, Act NZ & Maori)

2020

NZ Election, October 17, 2020*

57.87

34.33

ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL

Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament, signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020

November 2020

56.5

37

December 2020

54.5

40

 2021

   
 January 2021 58.5 36

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).


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