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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down slightly by 0.7pts to 113.1 in February

New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down slightly by 0.7pts to 113.1 in February, consolidating a bit short of its historical average of 120.

New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down slightly by 0.7pts to 113.1 in February, consolidating a bit short of its historical average of 120.

  • The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, fell 1 point.
  • Inflation expectations remain high at 4.6%. House price inflation expectations are off the charts at 7.5%.

Unlike business sentiment consumer confidence has not had a full recovery, but it’s not too far short of its historical average.

Turning to the detail:

  • Perceptions of current financial situations fell 6 points to -2%.

  • A net 27% expect to be better off this time next year, down 1.

  • A net 20% think it is a good time to buy a major household item, down 1 point. It is consistent with our expectation that the durables retail overshoot is on borrowed time.

  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook lifted 3 points to 2%. The five-year outlook also lifted 3 points to +20%.

  • House price inflation expectations jumped another 0.6%pts to 7.5%, a record high in data that begins in 2010. They lifted in every region, and range from 6.2% in Canterbury to 8.4% in the North Island ex Auckland and Wellington.

  • CPI inflation expectations lifted 0.1%pts to 4.6%. Household inflation expectations have been persistently high in recent months.

Household house price expectations are spectacular, with fear of missing out rampant. However, sales were weaker in January, and longer-term mortgage rates will soon come under upward pressure if the underlying wholesale interest rates don’t start to back down. Affordability is exceptionally stretched, and record rates of lending may soon start to put pressure on banks’ funding positions. We suspect the frenzy is close to a peak.

Households continue to be wary about buying a major household item. The latter has historically been the best retail spending indicator in the survey. Retail spending has outperformed this indicator, reflecting repurposed holiday savings, a catch-up from lockdown, the housing boom and interest-free deals. However, this overshoot is now waning, as was inevitable.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2