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New Zealand Labour/Greens support unchanged at 58.5% in February as COVID-19 vaccine rollout begins

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ-wide cross-section of 926 electors during February. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed only 4% (up 1% point) didn’t name a party.

The Labour/Greens government support is unchanged at 58.5% in February. However, support for the Labour Party is down by 2% points to 45% in February while support for the Greens increased 2% points to 13.5%.

Support for the main opposition National Party is up 4% points to 29% - the highest support for National since April 2020 during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Support for Act NZ is down by 1.5% points to 7.5% and back to its level at last year’s New Zealand Election while support for the Maori Party is down 1% point to 1%.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ-wide cross-section of 926 electors during February. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed only 4% (up 1% point) didn’t name a party.


Labour/Greens (58.5%) maintain big lead over opposition National/Act NZ/Maori (37.5%)

In February 58.5% of electors supported the Labour/Greens governing partnership, unchanged on January. The governing parties were over 20% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ/Maori Party on 37.5%, up 1.5% points since January.

A small minority of 4% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament. Of the parties outside Parliament, The Opportunities Party (TOP) was down 0.5% points to 1% in February and New Zealand First was down 0.5% points to 1.5%.


New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was down 3.5pts to 149.5 in February

A majority of 69.5% of New Zealand electors (down 2%) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 20% (up 1.5%) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ creating a decrease of 3.5pts in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating to 149.5 in February.


Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the long-awaited COVID-19 vaccine finally hit New Zealand’s shores in February with border and quarantine workers the first to ‘get the jab’:

“Support for the Labour/Greens governing coalition was unchanged at 58.5% in February although the Greens gained 2% points in support, up to 13.5%, at the expense of their coalition partners Labour, down 2% points to 45%.

“The main Opposition National was the biggest mover in February, gaining 4% points to 29% - its highest level of support since April 2020 during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Of course the big news this month has been the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine. The first shots have been administered to border and managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) workers such as cleaners, nurses, security staff, airline staff, hotel workers and customs and border officials in the Auckland region starting on February 20.

“The rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine overseas, in countries such as the US and UK, has coincided with large falls in those infected with the virus and by the second half of the year a large majority of New Zealanders are expected to have received the vaccine.

“Although life in New Zealand has been relatively normal for most of the last year, the closure of the international border has significantly restricted travel to and from the country. As countries vaccinate their populations from COVID-19 there should be greater scope to open up international borders later in the year and gradually allow for greater movement into and out of the country.

“Another benefit to large-scale vaccination of the population is that the political focus will turn more firmly to the important domestic issues such as housing affordability and the nation’s response to Climate Change that were dominating the political discussion pre-pandemic.

“This return to ‘politics-as-normal’ will provide opposition parties National and Act NZ a chance to get their message out as the focus returns to more routine issues rather than New Zealand’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic which has been widely praised around the world.

“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has enjoyed an unprecedented level of support over the last year but the challenge of maintaining that support when the national emergency subsides will present a different test of Ardern’s political skills in the run-up to the 2023 NZ Election.”


New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21

Roy Morgan New Zealand Party Voting Intention - February 2021

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2021.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.


New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Voting Intention - February 2021

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2021.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.


Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Roy Morgan Government Confidence & Consumer Confidence Rating - February 2021

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2021.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.


Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

PARTY VOTE

Labour

Green Party*

National

ACT NZ

Maori Party**

TOP**

NZ First

Other

ELECTIONS

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

October 12, 1996*

28.19

10.10

33.87

6.10

n/a

n/a

13.35

8.39

November 27, 1999

38.74

5.16

30.50

7.04

n/a

n/a

4.26

14.30

July 27, 2002

41.26

7.00

20.93

7.14

n/a

n/a

10.38

13.29

September 17, 2005

41.10

5.30

39.10

1.51

2.12

n/a

5.72

5.15

November 8, 2008

33.99

6.72

44.93

3.65

2.39

n/a

4.07

4.25

November 26, 2011

27.48

11.06

47.31

1.07

1.43

n/a

6.59

5.06

September 20, 2014  

25.13

10.70

47.04

0.69

1.32

n/a

8.66

6.46

September 23, 2017

36.89

6.27

44.45

0.50

1.18

2.44

7.20

1.07

October 17, 2020

50.01

7.86

25.58

7.59

1.17

1.51

2.60

3.70

ROY MORGAN POLL

March 2020

42.5

11.5

37

3.5

0.5

1

3

1

April 2020

55

7

30.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

2.5

0.5

May 2020

56.5

7

26.5

3.5

1.5

1

2.5

1.5

June 2020

54.5

9

27

5

1

1.5

1.5

0.5

July 2020

53.5

8

26.5

6.5

0.5

1.5

1.5

2

August 2020

48

11.5

28.5

6

0.5

1

2.5

2

September 2020

47.5

9.5

28.5

7

0.5

1.5

2.5

3

NZ Election 2020

50

7.9

25.6

7.6

1.2

1.5

2.6

3.7

November 2020

44

12.5

25.5

10.5

1

2

1.5

3

December 2020

44

10.5

28

10

2

2

2

1.5

January 2021

47

11.5

25

9

2

1.5

2

2

February 2021

45

13.5

29

7.5

1

1

1.5

1.5

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties. **The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.


Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National, Act NZ & Maori)

2020

NZ Election, October 17, 2020*

57.87

34.33

ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL

Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament, signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – Oct. 31, 2020

November 2020

56.5

37

December 2020

54.5

40

2021

January 2021

58.5

36

February 2021

58.5

37.5

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).