ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up by 4.6pts to 115.4 in April
New Zealand Consumer Confidence was up by 4.6pts to 115.4 in April, still a little short of its historical average of 120.
New Zealand Consumer Confidence was up by 4.6pts to 115.4 in April, still a little short of its historical average of 120.
- The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, lifted 4 points to +18.
- Inflation expectations bounced back to close to recent highs, while house price inflation expectations were unchanged.
Turning to the detail:
- Perceptions of current financial situations lifted 7 points to +10%, its strongest post-COVID level.
- A net 31% expect to be better off this time next year, up 1.
- A net 18% think it is a good time to buy a major household item, up 4 points. This is the single best retail indicator in the survey.
- Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook rose 11 points to +4%. The five-year outlook was unchanged at +15%.
- House price inflation expectations were little changed at 6%, a historically very high level. They fell in Auckland and the South Island, but lifted in the North Island outside of Auckland.
- CPI inflation expectations jumped 0.7%pts to 4.7%, back to recent highs.
Household house price inflation expectations appear to have peaked, but do not appear to be meaningfully retreating in light of recent policy changes.
Households continue to be much warier about buying a major household item than exceptionally strong house price inflation expectations would suggest they ‘should’ be, reflecting uncertainty about the economic outlook. Their self-reported wariness about spending would normally be a reliable indicator that retailers are doing it tough, but people have in fact been spending anyway. This likely reflects substitution for lost overseas holidays, the housing boom and interest-free deals – not to mention that massive fiscal stimulus deferred much of the income hit from COVID to another day. But one way or another the gap needs to close.
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Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables
- ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
