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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunges 5.7pts to 104.3 – its lowest since early November 2020 as lockdown extended in Sydney and Melbourne goes into fifth lockdown

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,514 online and telephone interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend July 17/18, 2021.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunged 5.7pts to 104.3 this week after the Greater Sydney lockdown was extended until at least the end of July and Melbourne entered an unprecedented fifth lockdown late last week. Consumer Confidence is now sitting clearly below the 2021 weekly average of 110.9, however it is still 13.6 points higher than the same week a year ago, July 18/19, 2020 (90.7).

Consumer Confidence fell in both major cities this week, down 5.1pts (-4.8%) to 101.5 in Sydney and down 4.1pts (-3.7%) to 105.8 in Melbourne. Consumer Confidence also fell significantly in Adelaide and Perth, although was up slightly in Brisbane after that city emerged from lockdown two weeks ago.

The indices to drive Consumer Confidence lower this week were those related to the performance of the Australian economy over the next year and next five years and whether now is a ‘good/bad time to buy major household items’ – not surprising given the closure of many retail stores in lockdown.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 29% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and 28% (up 1ppts), say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.


Future financial conditions

  • In addition, a plurality of 38% (down 1pt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 17% (up 3ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.


Current economic conditions

  • In a concerning development now less than a sixth of Australians, 15% (down 2ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months while nearly a quarter, 24% (up 6ppts), expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since late November 2020).


Future economic conditions

  • In the longer term, just under a fifth of Australians, 19% (down 2ppts), are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 17% (up 3ppts) expecting ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since early October 2020).


Time to buy a major household item

  • The biggest driver of this week’s decline related to whether now is a good or bad time to buy major household items with 36% (down 7ppts), of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 30% (up 6ppts) saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’ – an overall swing of 13ppts and the worst result for this question since early November 2020.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

"Consumer confidence fell by 5.2% as the lockdown in Sydney was tightened and extended and another lockdown was imposed in Melbourne. Confidence actually dropped the most in Adelaide (-9.5%) and Perth (-8.2%) and was also down sharply in Sydney (-4.8%) and Melbourne (-3.7%). The subindices that capture economic conditions and ‘time to buy a major household item’ are at their worst levels since early November 2020, highlighting some renewed caution of households – albeit nowhere near the lows seen in the early stage of the pandemic. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations has been at or above the 4.0% mark for the past five weeks, cementing the return to pre- COVID levels."

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases.


Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Australian Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)
ANZ-Roy Morgan 2020 Weekly Australian Consumer Confidence Results
ANZ-Roy Morgan Monthly Australian Consumer Confidence Results (1973-2021)
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)
ANZ-Roy Morgan Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Results (Headline Figures)


Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2