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Labour support down and Government Confidence Rating drops to lowest since Jacinda Ardern became PM in 2017

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – October 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 929.
Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens government was down 5% points to 50% in October as support for the Labour Party dropped 6% points to 39.5%. During this period the lockdown of New Zealand’s largest city of Auckland was extended throughout October. Support for the Greens was up 1% point to 10.5%.

The governing parties are now only 6% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/ Maori Party on 44%, up 3% points since September. The increase was driven by a rise in support for National, up by 3% points to 26%. Act NZ was unchanged at a record high of 16% and support for the Maori Party was unchanged at 2%.

A small minority of 6% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First up 1% point to 2.5%, The Opportunities Party down 0.5% points to 1% and support for the New Conservative Party is at 1.5% in October.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 929 electors during October. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed there are 4%, down 1% point, that didn’t name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drop 15.5pts to 109.5 in October – the lowest since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister four years ago in late 2017

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 15.5pts in October to 109.5 to be at its lowest since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to office four years ago in October 2017. The drop in Government Confidence came after the Auckland lockdown was extended throughout October.

In October only 48% (down 9% points) of New Zealand electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 38.5% (up 6.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was down by 6.5pts to 98 in October and is now below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 106.8 on October 23/24, 2021 after the Australian cities of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra all emerged from lockdown earlier in October.

Women continue to favour Labour-Greens while men favour National-Act NZ

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s strength lies with the massive edge in support that the Labour Party receives from women. Nearly three-fifths of women (57.5%) support either Labour (49%) or the Greens (8.5%) compared to only 42% of men supporting either Labour (28.5%) or the Greens (13.5%) – a massive ‘gender gap’ of 20.5% points in favour of Ardern’s Labour Party among women.

Men are more likely to support the Parliamentary opposition with 48.5% supporting either National (28.5%), Act NZ (17.5%) or the Maori Party (2.5%) compared to 40% of Women supporting either National (24%), Act NZ (14.5%) or the Maori Party (1.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 116 for Women compared to 102.5 for men

The trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which show 49.5% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 46% of men but only 33.5% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 43.5% of men.

Overall, this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 116 for women compared to only 102.5 for men – a gap of 13.5 points.

Party vote analysis by Gender

Total

Men

Women

%

%

%

Labour

39.5

28.5

49

Greens

10.5

13.5

8.5

Labour/Greens

50

42

57.5

National

26

28.5

24

Act NZ

16

17.5

14.5

Maori Party

2

2.5

1.5

National/Act NZ/ Maori Party

44

48.5

40

Others

6

9.5

2.5

Total

100

100

100

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating*

Right Direction

48

46

49.5

Wrong Direction

38.5

43.5

33.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating*

109.5

102.5

116

Can’t say

13.5

10.5

17

Total

100

100

100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Auckland’s lockdown has been extended well into November as the country chases a full vaccination rate of 90% of the eligible population to begin relaxing restrictions between Auckland and the rest of the country:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows New Zealanders appear to finally be growing weary of using lockdowns to stop the spread of COVID-19 with the country now achieving high rates of vaccination. As of this week 87% of the eligible population has had at least one vaccine dose and 72% of the eligible population is now fully vaccinated.

“The full vaccination rate in New Zealand (72%) is just behind the figure in neighbouring Australia (76%) in which extended lockdowns in Greater Sydney, Greater Melbourne and Canberra have all ended in the last few weeks as full vaccination rates exceeded 70%.

“Support for the Labour-led Government dropped to 50% in October, down 5% points from September. Support for Labour was at 39.5% (down 6% points) while support for the Greens was up 1% point to 10.5%.

“In contrast, support for the Parliamentary Opposition was up 3% points to 44% in October with an increase in support for National, up 3% points to 26%, driving the increase. Support for the ACT NZ was steady at the record high of 16% and support for the Maori Party was unchanged at 2%. 

“Confirming the drop in support for the Labour-led Government were the falls in October in the key Roy Morgan Confidence indicators. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped to 109.5, down 15.5pts from September. This is the lowest Government Confidence Rating since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power four years ago in October 2017. Amongst men, Government Confidence is just barely in positive territory at 102.5.

“Along with the fall in Government Confidence there has also been a fourth straight monthly fall in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating, down 6.5pts to 98. This is the lowest Consumer Confidence Rating since May 2020 (97.3) in the early stages of the pandemic.

“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has flagged a significant decrease in restrictions will take place when 90% of the eligible population aged 12+ is fully vaccinated which is likely to occur in early December.

“This strict benchmark could well see support continue to drift away from the governing Labour party over the next two months as countries such as neighbouring Australia open up more fully to domestic and international travel in November.”


New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – October 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 929.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – October 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 929.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – October 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 929.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020 General Election:

PARTY VOTE

Labour

Green Party*

National

ACT NZ

Maori Party**

TOP**

NZ First

Other

ELECTIONS

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

October 12, 1996*

28.19

10.10

33.87

6.10

n/a

n/a

13.35

8.39

November 27, 1999

38.74

5.16

30.50

7.04

n/a

n/a

4.26

14.30

July 27, 2002

41.26

7.00

20.93

7.14

n/a

n/a

10.38

13.29

September 17, 2005

41.10

5.30

39.10

1.51

2.12

n/a

5.72

5.15

November 8, 2008

33.99

6.72

44.93

3.65

2.39

n/a

4.07

4.25

November 26, 2011

27.48

11.06

47.31

1.07

1.43

n/a

6.59

5.06

September 20, 2014  

25.13

10.70

47.04

0.69

1.32

n/a

8.66

6.46

September 23, 2017

36.89

6.27

44.45

0.50

1.18

2.44

7.20

1.07

October 17, 2020

50.01

7.86

25.58

7.59

1.17

1.51

2.60

3.70

ROY MORGAN POLL

July 2020

53.5

8

26.5

6.5

0.5

1.5

1.5

2

August 2020

48

11.5

28.5

6

0.5

1

2.5

2

September 2020

47.5

9.5

28.5

7

0.5

1.5

2.5

3

NZ Election 2020

50

7.9

25.6

7.6

1.2

1.5

2.6

3.7

November 2020

44

12.5

25.5

10.5

1

2

1.5

3

December 2020

44

10.5

28

10

2

2

2

1.5

January 2021

47

11.5

25

9

2

1.5

2

2

February 2021

45

13.5

29

7.5

1

1

1.5

1.5

March 2021

45.5

12

23

11

1

2

2.5

3

April 2021

41.5

13.5

29.5

9

2.5

0.5

1

2.5

May 2021

45

11

28.5

9

1.5

1.5

2

1.5

June 2021

38.5

12.5

29.5

11.5

2.5

2

1.5

2

July 2021

39.5

10

29

13

2.5

3

2

1

August 2021

39.5

12

25

13

2.5

2

2.5

3.5

September 2021

45.5

9.5

23

16

2

1.5

1.5

1

October 2021

39.5

10.5

26

16

2

1

2.5

2.5

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL

Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020

November 2020

56.5

37

December 2020

54.5

40

2021

January 2021

58.5

36

February 2021

58.5

37.5

March 2021

57.5

35

April 2021

55

41

May 2021

56

39

June 2021

51

43.5

July 2021

49.5

44.5

August 2021

51.5

40.5

September 2021

55

41

October 2021

50

44

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2