Treasurer Josh Frydenberg increases his lead as the preferred Coalition Leader over Scott Morrison by 10% points in a month

Now 46% of Australians (up 7.5% points since mid-February) prefer Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to lead the L-NP Government, clearly ahead of current Prime Minister Scott Morrison 28.5% (down 2.5% points) and Defence Minister Peter Dutton 14% (up 1.5% points) while 1% (down 1% point) named someone else and 10.5% (down 5.5% points) had no preference.

Importantly, among L-NP supporters it is now a virtual tie between the two with Frydenberg on 37.5% (up 5% points) just behind Morrison on 38% (down 2% points) according to a special Roy Morgan SMS Poll of 1,067 Australian electors conducted over the last two days this week, March 30-31, 2022.

An analysis by gender shows Frydenberg leads Morrison amongst men by 15.5% points (Frydenberg: 44.5% cf. Morrison: 29%) well up from the narrow 3% points lead held by Frydenberg in February, and by 19.5% points amongst women (Frydenberg 47.5% cf. Morrison 28%) – up from a 12% points lead.

An analysis by age shows Frydenberg with the advantage amongst younger age groups while the two are now tied amongst those aged 65+ years old:

• 18-34 year olds: Frydenberg 53.5% (up 7% points) cf. Morrison 23.5% (up 1.5% points);
• 35-49 year olds: Frydenberg 45.5% (up 9% points) cf. Morrison 24.5% (down 5.5% points);
• 50-64 year olds: Frydenberg 41.5% (up 4.5% points) cf. Morrison 28% (down 1.5% points);
• 65+ year olds: Morrison 40.5% (down 5.5% points) cf. Frydenberg 40.5% (up 7.5% points).

On a State-by-State basis Frydenberg now leads as preferred Coalition Leader in all six States. In February Morrison had held a lead in Queensland.

• NSW: Frydenberg 39% (up 1% point) cf. Morrison 36% (up 0.5% points);
• Victoria: Frydenberg 52% (up 8.5% points) cf. Morrison 23% (down 3% points);
• Queensland: Frydenberg 40.5% (up 8.5% points) cf. Morrison 28.5% (down 9% points);
• WA: Frydenberg 51% (up 12.5% points) cf. Morrison 25% (down 0.5% points);
• SA: Frydenberg 49% (up 12% points) cf. Morrison 28.5% (down 2% points);
• Tasmania: Frydenberg 52% (up 8.5% points) cf. Morrison 23% (down 10% points).

A look at who supporters of different parties prefer as Leader shows L-NP supporters unable to decisively split Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Prime Minister Scott Morrison but Frydenberg has a clear advantage amongst supporters of the ALP, Greens and Independents/Others.

• L-NP supporters: Morrison 38% (down 1.5% points) cf. Frydenberg 37.5% (up 5% points);
• ALP supporters: Frydenberg 50% (up 9.5% points) cf. Morrison 24% (down 3.5% points);
• Greens supporters: Frydenberg 58% (up 7% points) cf. Morrison 18.5% (down 3% points);
• Independents/Others supporters: Frydenberg 46.5% (up 15.5% points) cf. Morrison 25% (down 2% points).

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer: Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton or Josh Frydenberg?

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:

This special Roy Morgan SMS Poll was conducted on March 30-31, 2022, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,067 electors.

Preferred Coalition Leader (Scott Morrison vs. Peter Dutton vs. Josh Frydenberg)

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer: Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton or Josh Frydenberg?

Analysis by Federal Voting intention

Analysis by Gender & Age

Analysis by State & Region

#Sample sizes with fewer than 50 respondents should be treated with caution.

Preferred Coalition Leader (Scott Morrison vs. Peter Dutton vs. Josh Frydenberg)

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer: Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton or Josh Frydenberg?

Analysis by Federal Voting intention (Someone else and None/Can’t say removed)

Analysis by Gender & Age (Someone else and None/Can’t say removed)

Analysis by State & Region (Someone else and None/Can’t say removed)

#Sample sizes with fewer than 50 respondents should be treated with caution.