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ALP 53% leads the L-NP 47% as energy crisis strikes Eastern Australia

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–June 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+. Preferences allocated by how people stated their preference until May 1, 2022. Preferences have been allocated by voting patterns at the 2019 Federal Election for results after May 1, 2022.
The ALP’s lead over the L-NP is now 6% points on a two-party preferred basis a month after the Federal Election: ALP 53% (down 1% point in a week) ahead of the L-NP 47% (up 1% point). This is still an increase for the ALP on last month’s Federal Election result: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%.

If a Federal Election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won easily.

Analysis by State shows the ALP leads in four States including Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania, the L-NP leads in NSW while the two parties are even in Queensland.

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,401 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday June 13 – Sunday June 19, 2022. There were 4.5% of electors (down 2% points) who wouldn’t say who they support.

Primary support for the ALP increased but was down for the Greens and Independents

Primary support for the ALP was up 2% points to 36% this week but still trails the L-NP, unchanged on 37%. Support for the Greens was down 1.5% points to 11%. The Greens recorded their best election result with a record high level of support of 12.3% and winning four seats in the House of Representatives.

Support for One Nation was up 0.5% points to 4% and support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was down 0.5% points to 0.5%. Support for Other Parties was up 2.5% points to 7% while support for Independents was down 3% points to 4.5%.

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in four of six States

Voting analysis by State this week show the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in four States (Victoria, WA, SA and Tasmania), the L-NP leading in NSW and the parties even in Queensland.

The L-NP leads in NSW on 53.5% (up 4.9% points since the Federal Election) compared to the ALP on 46.5% (down 4.9% points) on a two-party preferred basis.

The ALP leads strongly in Victoria with the ALP on 60.5% (up 6.6% points since the Federal Election) well ahead of the L-NP on 39.5% (down 6.6% points) on a two-party preferred basis.

The parties can’t be split in Queensland with the ALP on 50% (up 4.1% points since the Federal Election) and even with the LNP on 50% (down 4.1% points) on a two-party preferred basis.

The ALP has a narrow lead in Western Australian with the ALP on 50.5% (down 4.5% points since the Federal Election) just ahead of the L-NP on 49.5% (up 4.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis.

In South Australia, and from a small sample, the ALP on 60.5% (up 6.5% points since the Federal Election) is now well ahead of the L-NP ono 39.5% (down 6.5% points) on a two party preferred basis.

In Tasmania, and again from a small sample, the ALP on 63% (up 8.7% points since the Federal Election) leads the L-NP on 37% (down 8.7% points) on a two-party preferred basis.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence down 2pts to 105 – third straight week of declines

The weekly Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was down 2pts to 105 this week, the third consecutive week of declines after reaching a high of 111.5 immediately after last month’s Federal Election.

There are now 42% (down 2% points) of Australians who say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to just over a third, 37% (unchanged), who say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Government Confidence is now above the neutral level of 100 in all five States led by South Australia (120.5) and Tasmania (111.5). Government Confidence is around the national average in Western Australia (105.5), Victoria (105.5) and New South Wales (104.5).

However, Government Confidence is below the neutral level of 100 in Queensland at only 95.5.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the energy crisis impacting Australia’s East Coast has taken its toll in a political sense with support for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis down for a second straight week:

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP on 53% (down 1% point from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP on 47% (up 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis. The result still represents an improvement for the ALP since last month’s Federal Election which was won by the Anthony Albanese-led ALP: ALP 51.9% cf. L-NP 48.1%.

“The drop in support for the ALP is reflected in the small decline in the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating, down 2pts to 105 this week, and now down for a third straight week after reaching a post-election high of 111.5 immediately after the Federal Election. Now 42% of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 37% who say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

“The ALP’s first few weeks in Government have been dominated by concerns about energy prices – and reliability of supply, inflation and interest rates which all relate directly to cost of living concerns – consistently the issue that rates highest for Australians.

“Although energy prices have soared in recent weeks for several reasons the energy supply has been maintained as regulators have stepped in to force energy generators to keep supplying power to the grid. These actions have saved the energy system from a breakdown and also saved the new Albanese Government from a much greater loss in support.

“These concerns surrounding energy prices, as well as inflation and interest rates, have also fed into other key indicators that Roy Morgan track. This includes the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence which is down 9.1pts to 81.7 since the Federal Election, although it did increase by 1.3pts this week, and the weekly Inflation Expectations which are now at 5.9%, up 0.3% points this week and up 0.6% points since the Federal Election.

“Both of these indicators have clearly moved in the wrong direction over the last few weeks and if they continue to do so support for the Government will be reduced in the weeks and months ahead.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–June 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+. Preferences allocated by how people stated their preference until May 1, 2022. Preferences have been allocated by voting patterns at the 2019 Federal Election for results after May 1, 2022.

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