September 20, 2022

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged at 86.0 in mid-September

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9070
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up by 0.3pts to 86.0 this week and is now a large 17.3pts below the same week a year ago, September 18/19, 2021 (103.3). In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 4.9pts below the 2022 weekly average of 90.9.

The slight increase in Consumer Confidence has recovered almost all of the ground lost last week following the RBA’s fifth successive interest rate increase. On a State-by-State basis most were up, including NSW, Queensland and WA but Victoria was down slightly.

There were mixed results across the index this week with two improving slightly, two declining and one changed. The biggest driver of the small increase was the improvement in the outlook on personal finances over the next year which improved to its best result since mid-May.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 23% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 42% (up 1ppt), that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, slightly more than a third of Australians, 34% (up 2ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while only 29% (down 3ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 7% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 35% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times.’

Future economic conditions

  • In the longer term, just 12% (down 1ppt) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 17% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times.’

Time to buy a major household item

  • When it comes to buying intentions now just 23% (up 1ppt) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while twice as many, 46% (down 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

Block Quote

Consumer confidence increased by 0.4% last week, almost reversing the 0.5% decline of the week before. When we look at consumer confidence by housing status the confidence of people paying off their mortgage is greater than those renting for the first time since the RBA started raising interest rates in May after confidence of renters dropped by 8.7% last week. This may indicate that people with mortgages have taken comfort from recent commentary that the RBA might scale back the size of rate increases in October. We think that commentary is misplaced and expect another 50bp from the RBA in October. This might come as something of a shock for those with mortgages. Household inflation expectations jumped 0.3ppt to 5.6%, its highest since mid-August.

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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