Roy Morgan Research
October 04, 2022

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.3pts to 85.5 as AUD and ASX200 fall and the petrol excise is returned

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9080
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell by 2.3pts to 85.5 this week and is now a large 19.1pts below the same week a year ago, October 2/3, 2021 (104.6). In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 5.1pts below the 2022 weekly average of 90.6.

The fall in Consumer Confidence was broad-based this week with the index falling in all five mainland States – the first time that has happened since early August. Driving the decline was less confidence about the Australian economy’s performance over the next year and next five years.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 24% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to an unchanged 42% that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, now fewer than a third of Australians, 31% (down 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 31% (unchanged), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 6% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to more than a third, 36% (up 3ppts), that expect ‘bad times.’

Future economic conditions

  • There has been a sharp decline in terms of sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term with fewer than one-in-eight, 12% (down 5ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 19% (up 3ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • When it comes to buying intentions now 25% (up 1ppt) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while almost twice as many, 43% (down 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

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The weakness in global financial markets through last week weighed on Australian consumers. A plethora of negative news last week ranging from the UK’s mini budget to hawkish Fed commentary impacted the AUD, which weakened to its two-year lows. We often see consumer sentiment soften in line with AUD weakness. The jump in inflation expectations, likely linked to the end of the temporary petrol excise cut and uptick in petrol prices, also weighed on sentiment. Consumer confidence will remain fragile as long as market volatility is the dominant theme globally. The RBA’s October rate decision will also impact in the near-term.

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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